Despite the firing of head coach Chris Beard, the Texas Longhorns haven’t missed a beat. They now hit the road on Saturday to face Kansas State in a game that could go a long way to deciding who wins the Big 12 title this season.
The Longhorns and Wildcats, along with Kansas, are all tied with an identical 18-4 record, but Texas has a one-game lead in the conference standings with four teams – including Kansas State – sitting just one game back.
These two teams engaged in one of the highest-scoring affairs of the season when they met in Austin just one month ago. Should we expect to see more fireworks again this time out? We discuss that and more in our Texas vs Kansas State college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, February 4.
Texas vs Kansas State best odds
Texas vs Kansas State picks and predictions
219 points. That’s how many were scored on January 3 when the Wildcats took a 13-point victory on the road after outscoring Texas by 18 in the first half. Both teams shot over 50% from the floor, and Kansas State connected on 13 of 24 attempts from behind the arc.
Each team saw a pair of players score at least 27 points on the day. Tyrese Hunter had 29 to go along with 27 from Marcus Carr for the Horns, while the Wildcats got 28 from Keyontae Johnson and 36 from Markquis Nowell.
Tuesday’s 90-78 loss to Kansas saw Nowell score exactly 23 points for the third time in his last four games, while Johnson added another 22. But Texas defeated Baylor by five despite getting only five points from Carr in 30 minutes. In fact, he and Hunter have combined for just 36 points over the past two games, including their 11-point loss at Tennessee.
But Tennessee ranks first in the nation in scoring defense and assist-to-turnover ratio against, and Baylor ranks 141st in pace of play. That won’t be an issue with these two teams.
Both teams rank in the Top 56 in possessions per game, and both rank in the 100s in scoring defense. Offensively, they’re among the 40 best teams in points per contest, and combine for an average of 34 assists per, as both rank in the Top 15.
Each of these defenses is better than what they showed in the first game, especially for Texas. The Longhorns are adept at getting takeaways with their pressure defense and love to get out in the open court. And that’s likely why the Total for this game is at 150.5 despite the high-flying first showdown.
That said, that line is still too low for me. Kansas State has been in some low-scoring affairs this season at home, but those have mostly come against teams that don’t score like Kansas. When you look at their games against good teams, those Totals go up — 168 with Kansas this week, 156 at Iowa State last week, and 165 with Kansas at home the week before.
I don’t expect the 200-point shootout we got a month ago, but I do expect we will see more than 150 points in this one. Kansas State will thrive on its home energy, and Texas will push the pace. With this game likely having a tournament feel, look for a tight contest with free throws down the stretch — or even overtime — pushing the Total into the Over.
My best bet: Over 150.5 (-110 at bet365)
Looking to do some college basketball betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $3,000! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost (up to 100%) on any college basketball parlay at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Texas vs Kansas State spread analysis
Texas has lost just four times all season, with three of those defeats — Illinois, Iowa State, and Tennessee — coming against ranked foes at the time. Only their loss to Kansas State came against an unranked opponent. But now, the Wildcats are ranked inside the Top 10.
Kansas State is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, and three of its four defeats have also come against unranked teams. Texas’ last two losses have come away from home, and with the Illinois neutral-court defeat it’s suffered three of its four outside of Austin.
The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the road team has also covered in five of those six. That bodes well for Texas, who is currently a 1.5-point dog. Unfortunately, the Covers Consensus isn’t buying either of those trends. 69% of the picks and two-thirds of the money is on Kansas State covering the spread at home as it remains undefeated at Bramlage Coliseum.
Texas vs Kansas State Over/Under analysis
We’ve already gone into the Total — and the Covers Consensus agrees with the play. 60% of the picks and more than three-fourths of the money is on the Over, and the public has bet the line up since it opened on Friday afternoon by two full points.
Texas has seen the Over go 5-0 in its last five games after a win against the spread, and 4-0 in the last four games against teams with winning records. The Over is also 6-0 for Kansas State in games against teams with a winning record, pointing to what I mentioned earlier — when the Wildcats play good teams, they tend to play faster.
The Over is 7-3 in Kansas State’s last 10 games. Additionally, nine of Kansas State’s last 11 games following a failure to cover, such as the one it had on Tuesday, have resulted in the Over coming through.
Texas vs Kansas State betting trend to know
The Over is 9-2 in the last 11 games for Kansas State following an ATS defeat. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Kansas State.
Texas vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Saturday, February 4, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
