Rutgers vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Knights Fight Back Against Boilermakers

The Purdue Boilermakers have had a bad taste in their mouths since the weekend, becoming the latest Top 5 team to take an L. They can put that upset loss behind them when they host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights tonight.

The Boilermakers lost to Ohio State as 7.5-point road favorites on Sunday, suffering just their second defeat since the calendar flipped to 2024. Purdue had its nine-game winning streak snapped but is far from a solid bet, with a 5-5 ATS count in its last 10 outings.

The Scarlet Knights had their own winning streak snuffed out this weekend as well. They had strung together four straight victories before going down in Minnesota. Rutgers has already fallen to the Boilermakers this season, losing 68-60 at home on January 28 but did cover as a 10-point home pup.

I size up the college basketball odds for this Big Ten battle and give my free college basketball picks for Rutgers vs. Purdue on February 22.

Rutgers vs Purdue best odds

Rutgers vs Purdue picks and predictions

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights may have had their four-game winning streak to start the month snapped last time out, but they're in much better shape tonight than the past two outings.

The Knights entered Sunday’s game in Minnesota not knowing if two key players would be able to suit up. Starting forward Mawot Mag sat out the 63-60 win over Northwestern with a knee soreness and top reserve forward Noah Fernandes left the game with the Wildcats with a knee injury of his own.

Both of those guys played limited minutes this weekend — Mag only 17 and Fernandes just three — and left a big hole in Rutgers’ frontcourt defense. The Golden Gophers scored 81 points against the second-ranked defenses in the land, which was just the third time the Knights had allowed 80+ in regulation all season.

Purdue will face a much healthier Rutgers rotation tonight and one with point guard Jeremiah Williams on the floor. After missing the first 20 games due to eligibility issues — including the January 28 meeting with the Purdue Boilermakers — Williams has been a catalyst on both ends of the floor for the Scarlet Knights. That includes four steals and five blocks in his first five games back.

Rutgers has the depth to keep throwing capable defenders at the Boilermakers’ top perimeter weapons and a big body in Clifford Omoruyi to take on Zach Edey one-on-one. 

The Scarlet Knights employ plenty of full-court pressure and half-court traps, which not only create chance for turnovers but also force foes to burn through shot clock as they try to get the ball into the half-court set. 

Rutgers ranks among the best in average length of defensive possession and Purdue is a playbook that likes to operate at a slower tempo and set up the post touches and dump-down looks in the half court. The Scarlet Knights’ aggressive defense will leave the Boilermakers little time for those plays to develop, leading to rushed shots.

And speaking of rushing, that’s just what Rutgers wants Purdue’s ball handlers to do. The Scarlet Knights have the depth and athletes to play inside their opponents’ shorts for 40 minutes, and that’s led to more than 15 turnovers forced per game. The Boilermakers coughed up the ball 14 times in the loss to Ohio State and had just as many giveaways in the first meeting with Rutgers.

With the last two games giving skewed results for the Knights due to injuries, and Williams boosting Rutgers’ rating since his return, I feel the visitor is being undervalued and we’ve seen this echoed in early line movement.

This spread opened as big as 17 points at some books and is down to Rutgers +14.5 at some sharper spots this morning. However, you can still find the Scarlet Knights at +15.5 at most major operators.

My best bet: Scarlet Knights +15.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Rutgers vs Purdue same-game parlay

Rutgers +15.5

Under 138.5

Jeremiah Williams Over 2.5 assists

+600 at DraftKings

Rutgers is much healthier than its last two outings and can throw a wrench in Purdue’s playbook with its pressure defense.

The Scarlet Knights don’t want a shootout and most game models call for a total of 137 points in this Big Ten battle.

Williams gets his first shot at Purdue this season. He’s dished out more than four dimes in three straight and player projections have him above this prop total tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rutgers vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

Purdue opened as 16.5-point home chalk for Thursday’s contest and early overnight play was on the visitor, trimming this spread to as low as -14.5. Some bookmakers have seen buyback on the Boilermakers and are dealing the host at -15.5 as of this morning.

Purdue’s wheels started to wobble earlier in the week with an 84-76 win versus Minnesota. The Boilermakers trailed by eight points at halftime and rallied in the final 20 minutes to avoid the upset, falling short as 16.5-point home favorites.

Their scoring attack, which ranks second in offensive efficiency at KenPom, has sputtered in those last two games and we’ve seen some sloppy play from Purdue lead to careless turnovers.

Rutgers shows up at a bad time for the No. 3 team in the country as the Scarlet Knights boast a very stingy defense, sitting No. 2 in defensive efficiency. They check foes to 65.4 points on less than 40% shooting while forcing more than 15 turnovers a contest.

Tonight’s total opened as high as 139.5 and has slimmed to 138.5 at some shops, with a market consensus of 139 O/U as of this morning.

The Boilermakers’ offensive prowess has panned out in a 17-9 Over/Under record overall, including a 9-4 O/U count inside Mackey Arena. Purdue sees a significant uptick in scoring at home, averaging 90.7 points vs. only 78.2 on the road.

As for Rutgers, the defensive-anchored program has produced an 8-17 Over/Under count on the season, with a 4-5 O/U mark in true road games. The Scarlet Knights do see their defense slip a bit as visitors, allowing almost 72 points against in foreign gyms while countering with just 64.5 points for.  

Rutgers vs Purdue betting trend to know

Rutgers is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven matchups with Purdue going back to 2020, including covering as 10-point underdogs in a 68-60 loss to the Boilermakers at home on January 28. Find more college basketball betting trends for Rutgers vs. Purdue.

Rutgers vs Purdue game info

Rutgers vs Purdue key injuries

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