The Purdue Boilermakers are looking for a regular-season championship in the Big Ten. Currently, Purdue is sitting at 13-4 in conference play and tied with Wisconsin for first place.
Today, the Boilermakers will take on a possibly overrated Michigan State Spartans team on the road. The Spartans have lost five of their last six games and it’s not going to get any easier against Purdue.
Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Purdue vs. Michigan State on Saturday, February 26.
Purdue vs Michigan State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Purdue Boilermakers opened as a 3.5-point favorite but have already dropped to -2.5 at many outlets. Meanwhile, the total opened at 146.5 and most books are starting to increase the line to 147.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Purdue vs Michigan State predictions
Predictions made on 2/25/2022 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Purdue vs Michigan State game info
• Location: Jack Breslin Student Events Center, East Lansing, MI
• Date: Saturday, February 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Purdue at Michigan State betting preview
Injuries
Purdue: Brian Waddell F (Out).
Michigan State: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Purdue vs. Michigan State.
Purdue vs Michigan State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Coach Tom Izzo of Michigan State usually gets all the love in February and March for turning his team around. The Spartans are typically unstoppable at this time of year.
However, this season, things have been a bit different. Michigan State is not only losing but the Spartans are getting crushed in some instances.
It likely won’t be as bad at home, but Michigan State isn’t playing at a high enough level right now. The Spartans are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 51.9% while turning the ball over 20.1% of the time.
The good news is that Purdue likely won’t force a bunch of turnovers, but still, Michigan State should struggle to earn offensive rebounds. While the Spartans average 31.7% offensive rebounds per game, Purdue is holding opponents to just 23.5% rebounds per game.
The Spartans have been deadly from three-point range, hitting 38% from deep. Inside, it’s not the same story, with Michigan State only hitting 49.3% of looks. Plus, Purdue has done a very solid job at limiting fouls, so despite Michigan State’s 76.2% rate at the line, the Spartans might not be nearly as effective from the charity stripe.
On the other hand, Purdue is one of the best offenses in the nation. The Boilermakers are shooting 40.3% from deep and 56.9% from inside the arc. Purdue is scoring 82.2 points per game and limits turnovers, earning a high amount of offensive rebounds while also finding a way to get to the line more frequently.
Michigan State’s defense hasn’t been elite, but the Spartans have done well. Michigan State has limited opponents to a 46.4% effective field goal percentage, with teams hitting just 30.7% from three and 46.6% from inside the arc.
But despite Michigan State’s defensive efforts, Purdue should be able to get by Michigan State with a really good offense. At times, Michigan State just goes through slumps scoring the basketball. You can’t do that against Purdue and expect to win.
Prediction: Purdue -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Again, Purdue is one of the best offenses in the country. KenPom has the Boilermakers as the top offense in terms of adjusted efficiency in America.
Purdue isn’t the fastest offense and could struggle to find looks early in the shot clock, but overall, Purdue is just so consistent on the offensive end.
Meanwhile, Michigan State should be able to limit turnovers and is the quicker team of the two. The Spartans have the ability to get hot from deep, just like Purdue. So, give me the over here.
Prediction: Over 146.5 (-110)
Best bet
I’m sticking with Purdue. The Boilermakers are currently tied with Wisconsin for the Big Ten regular-season title.
With Wisconsin on the road against Rutgers, Purdue is in a pretty good spot to take control of the conference with a win against Michigan State.
Pick: Purdue -2.5 (-110)
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