Kentucky vs Arkansas Picks and Predictions: Kentucky Muscles Its Way to Win

In the closing week of college basketball, teams all over the country are looking to make their case for the Big Dance. The No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats (23-5, 12-3) are looking to build theirs for a  1-seed, but face the No. 18 Arkansas Razorbacks (22-6, 11-4), winners of 12 of their last 13 and the hottest team in the SEC. Can Kentucky add a huge badge to their resume on Saturday afternoon or will Arkansas continue to roll and spoil the party?

Continue reading for more free college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs Arkansas on Saturday, February 26th.

Kentucky vs Arkansas odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Kentucky opened as 2-point underdogs on the road to Arkansas. The total hit the board at 147.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Kentucky vs Arkansas predictions

• Prediction: Kentucky +2 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 147.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Kentucky +2 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/25/2022 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Kentucky vs Arkansas game info

• Location: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR
• Date: Saturday, February 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Kentucky at Arkansas betting preview

Injuries

Kentucky: TyTy Washington G (Questionable) Sahvir Wheeler G (Questionable).
Arkansas: None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Arkansas has played in totals at or above Saturday's mark five times this season and has gone 4-1 to the Under. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. Arkansas .

Kentucky vs Arkansas picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The SEC has been an absolute warzone this season. As it currently stands, the conference is home to five ranked teams with four of them ranked 18th or better, and the Top 4 teams are all within two games of each other heading into the final week of the season. Those four teams will face off against each other on Saturday, with No. 17 Tennessee hosting No. 3 Auburn and No. 18 Arkansas hosting No. 6 Kentucky. The winners of those games will be the only remaining teams with a path to win the regular season conference title, but these teams' aspirations are obviously much higher than that.

For Kentucky, it's all about getting a top seed for the Big Dance. Their case is currently not as strong as Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, or Kansas', but as mentioned previously, Auburn has quite the road test on Saturday, as does Kansas with a date with Baylor. It's entirely within reason that Kentucky can move ahead of either of those teams, but it will need to put those thoughts on the backburner and use every bit of focus on the opponent ahead of it on Saturday.

Arkansas has won 12 of its last 13 and has humbed a lot of teams along the way. It beat No. 12 LSU in its own house, held No. 22 Tennessee to 48 points, and handed No. 1 Auburn its first loss since November. Arkansas makes a lot of its bread on the defensive end, holding SEC opponents to conference-leading marks of 65.4 points per game and a crippling 28.8% clip from deep. It ranks 14th in KenPom defense, but there is a lot of supporting evidence that it’s even better than that already high mark.

During this recent 13 game stretch, the Razorbacks have held opponents to just 60.6 points on average in regulation. That is a much more impressive stretch of play compared to the 80 or so points they were giving up regularly to the likes of Northern Iowa, Little Rock, Hofstra, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M - all teams that rank outside the Top 50 in KenPom offensive efficiency. However, Kentucky is an entirely different challenge altogether as one of the country's premier offenses.

And the way Kentucky structures its offense brings into question how effective Arkansas' defense can ultimately be. The Wildcats shoot just 28.4% of their shots from deep, which ranks 348th in the nation. Most of their offense comes at the lower two levels of the court, with Oscar Tshiebwe (16.4 PPG, 15.3 RPG) and TyTy Washington (12.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) both 70%+ finishers at the rim and contributing to Kentucky's nation-leading 72.9% field goal percentage there, while also being proficient shooters on long twos on top of that. 

But with Washington and fellow ball-handler Sahvir Wheeler's (9.6 PPG, 7.1 PPG) statuses up in the air, we may see more land on Tshiebwe's plate.

That doesn't bode well for an Arkansas defense that ranks 198th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim compared to their lockdown perimeter defense. And while Arkansas' defense has vastly improved during this elevated stretch of play, it has admittedly not played the strongest slate of offenses during that time.

To the Hogs’ credit, they did hold Auburn (the 15th ranked offense according to KenPom) to 66 points in regulation, but Auburn's offensive philosophies differ massively from Kentucky's, shooting nearly 50% more threes (23.4 per game) than the Wildcats (16.8 per game).

Prediction: Kentucky +2 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Arkansas has only seen totals north of Saturday's mark just five times this season and has played 4-1 to the Under in those affairs. During their recent stretch of dominance (the last 13 games), they've played to the Under 8-5 as well.

With respect to the matchup, Arkansas possesses a good amount of size and rebounding talent that should help limit second-chance opportunities, especially from Tshiebwe, who is averaging 5.3 offensive boards per game. The Razorbacks have five players who average four rebounds or more per game (Kentucky has just two, for reference), headlined by 6'10" Jaylin Williams (10.4 PPG, 9.6 RPG).

Arkansas also takes care of the ball particularly well, committing just 12.7 turnovers on average during conference play. Kentucky is even better in that regard, with a conference-leading 11.7 per game. Both teams also extend that discipline when it comes to the whistle, with the Razorbacks ranking above-average in the SEC in fouls committed and Kentucky committing the second-fewest. And as it was previously established, Arkansas defends the three extremely well with Kentucky not leaning particularly hard on that shot anyways.

All in all, it's hard to find avenues for this game to blow the lid off an already-high total. Throw in the uncertainty surrounding the Wildcats' two primary ball-handlers and the case is relatively easy to make.

Prediction: Under 147.5 (-110)

Best bet

Arkansas has had quite the journey through the 2022 season. The Hogs started 9-0 before their early defensive struggles caught up to them and reared their head in the form of a 1-5 stretch.

They have since won 12 of their last 13 largely through elevated team defense and some truly inspiring play from the likes of JD Notae and Stanley Umude. And while they did beat No. 1 Auburn at home just a few short weeks ago, Saturday's matchup with Kentucky is just entirely different.

There is a stark difference between holding a high-volume three-point team like Auburn to 25% from deep on a whopping 32 attempts to squeak by in overtime and trying to strike gold again by doing it against a team that is more than happy shooting it just 12 times from beyond the arc, just like it did on Wednesday in its win against LSU.

Arkansas head coach Eric Musselman is a hell of a tactician and has done a lot to make Arkansas as big of a threat as it’s been, but John Calipari has essentially seen it all and is quite frankly on a different level.

Pick: Kentucky +2 (-110)

Pages related to this topic