Providence vs Butler Big East Tournament Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Fall Short on Spread

The Bulldogs give up big margins on offense to the Friars, and coming off an OT win yesterday, their legs are likely tired. We're backing the favorites to assert themselves as one of the Big East's best with our Butler vs. Providence picks.

Last Updated: Mar 10, 2022 9:15 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Nate Watson Providence Friars Big East Tournament
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Butler Bulldogs upset the Xavier Musketeers to advance in the Big East Tournament. If Butler wants to make the NCAA Tournament, it’ll have to win the Big East. 

While Butler is one step closer, the Big East bracket doesn’t get any easier, taking on the Providence Friars in the quarterfinals. 

Providence is currently ranked 11th in the nation via the AP Poll and put together a conference record of 14-3. The Friars were the Big East’s No. 1 seed and hope to prove that they belong in that slot against Butler. 

Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Butler vs. Providence on Thursday, March 10. 

Providence vs Butler odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Providence Friars are currently a -8 favorite against Butler in the quarterfinals of the Big East. The line hasn’t adjusted yet but there will likely be more action as the game inches closer to starting. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Providence vs Butler predictions

Predictions made on 3/9/2022 at 10:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Providence vs Butler game info

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET

Providence at Butler betting preview


Providence: Aljami Durham G (Questionable).
Butler: Jair Bolden G (Questionable), Christian David F (Out), Pierce Thomas G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Providence vs. Butler.

Providence vs Butler picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Despite Butler only winning 14 games this season, the Bulldogs have put up a fight against Providence in both previous matchups during the regular season. They lost 71-70 in overtime against Providence and proved that they could play against anyone in the conference. 

But after an overtime win yesterday, Butler’s legs might just fatigue towards the end of this game. 

Butler is only hitting 30.1% from three and 49.1% from inside the arc on the year. Even at the foul line, the Bulldogs are below average. On the glass, they’ve only brought down 26.9% of offensive rebounds and will not get to the line consistently. 

Providence, on the other hand, is holding opponents to 31.4% from deep and 46.2% from inside the arc. The Friars will rarely send teams to the foul line but also won’t force many turnovers, with just 16% per game. 

Either way, Butler should end up struggling from the field against Providence. 

Meanwhile, Providence has become nearly elite on the offensive end. The Friars are hitting 35.6% from deep and 49.9% from inside the arc. This is crucial knowing that Butler is allowing teams to shoot 52% from inside and has struggled inside the arc this year defensively. 

From deep, Butler has allowed just 31.4%, which is great, however, Providence will likely earn more offensive rebounds and get to the line more while limiting turnovers better. 

I like Providence to eventually pull away and play like one of the best teams in the conference. 

Prediction: Providence -8 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Butler is a slow offense, but eventually, when the Bulldogs are trailing, the game will have to speed up and the foul shooting will also start to ramp up. 

Butler isn’t the most efficient offense in the nation but still ended up scoring enough to beat Xavier in the first round of the Big East. 

I’ll never love Butler offensively, but I do think that place of play will be a factor in this game. The total is low enough to where Butler can do enough on its end to push this game over. Of course, Providence will get to the line at a high rate and will also more than likely continue to pile points with the clock stopped.

Prediction: Over 128.5 (-110)

Best bet

Providence needs a rematch against Villanova — we need to see the third game between those two teams. The only way to do that is by beating Butler and moving on into the semifinals. 

Providence has put together a terrific offense this season and the defense has stayed disciplined while forcing some really tough shots. 

Butler concedes a talent edge and should be gassed after yesterday’s win. I’ll take the well-rested legs in this one. 

Pick: Providence -8 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Providence vs. Butler picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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