Oregon vs Oregon State Pac-12 Tournament Picks and Predictions: Leave it to Beavers

This game won't be pretty. The Oregon Ducks limped into the tournament and the Oregon State Beavers have been simply awful all season. Nevertheless, the Ducks have struggled so mightily against the spread that our betting picks are backing the Beavers.

JD Yonke - Contributor at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Contributor
Mar 9, 2022 • 08:38 ET • 4 min read
Glen Taylor Jr. Oregon State Beavers College Basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A year ago, the Oregon State Beavers made the improbable come true by winning the Pac-12 Tournament as the No. 5 seed despite being listed with +4000 odds.

Things haven’t been so suitable in Corvallis during the 2021-2022 season, as the Beavers are just 3-27 overall and are the lowest seed in the tournament. They’ll do battle with the Oregon Ducks (18-13) in the first round in an intriguing in-state matchup.

Will the Beavers pull off the miraculous or will the Ducks roll as the sizable favorite?

Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for the Oregon State Beavers and Oregon Ducks on Wednesday, March 9 to find out.

Oregon vs Oregon State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Ducks opened -11, but that line quickly closed to -9.5 as of Tuesday night. The total has taken some money to the Over, moving from 143 at open to 144 at the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Oregon vs Oregon State predictions

Predictions made on 3/8/2022 at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Oregon vs Oregon State game info

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, NV
Date: Wednesday, March 9, 2022
Tip-off: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV: Pac-12 Network

Oregon at Oregon State betting preview

Injuries

Oregon: Will Richardson G (Out).
Oregon State: Warith Alatishe F (Questionable), Rodrigue Andela F (Out), Gianni Hunt G (Out), Xzavier Malone-Key G (Out), Isaiah Johnson F (Doubtful), Tre’ Williams G (Doubtful).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Beavers are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. Oregon State.

Oregon vs Oregon State picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Oregon enters as the No. 5 seed and is a trendy underdog pick to cut down the nets in T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Dana Altman has repeatedly worked wonders when the calendar flips to March, and there’s a prevailing sentiment that his Ducks could surprise a few teams in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Consider us dubious. The Ducks have burnt a hole in backers’ wallets, going a putrid 11-19 ATS on the season. The slew of transfers brought in during the offseason hasn’t yielded the desired results, and they haven’t looked like a cohesive unit for much of the season. Rather than turn on the jets to make a late-season push, the Ducks limped to the finish line with only one win in their final six games.

One thing to monitor closely is how Oregon plays without the services of lead guard Will Richardson, who is expected to be out for the entirety of the Pac-12 Tournament due to illness. Richardson missed the season finale against Washington State, and the Ducks crumbled in a 94-74 defeat. 

There isn’t much positive to say about Oregon State, as the record clearly indicates this is a moribund bunch. The Ducks did win both prior matchups: 78-76 in Corvallis and 78-56 in Eugene. They also hold the advantage in pretty much every statistical category.

That being said, the Ducks are laying 9.5 points despite finishing the season in freefall mode and being without the services of their best player. They had a shot at the NCAA Tournament and ruined it with a miserable end to the season. Their dreams have already been crushed, and there isn’t much reason to expect this team to be fired up to find a blowout win.

The Beavers certainly are a bad basketball team, but they only must keep things within single digits to find the cover. Despite the brutal record and a slew of inactive players, they’ve continued to fight. Wayne Tinkle’s squad brought USC and Washington State to overtime in the last two weeks and lost by only 4 to Washington State the second time around. 

Oregon State has thrived in tournament settings, going 8-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games. On the other hand, the Ducks have been the opposite, going 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral-site contests. 

Prediction: Oregon State +9.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Both teams have been profitable to back when it comes to surpassing totals. Oregon State is a robust 20-10 to the Over, while Oregon isn’t far behind at 17-11-2.

Neither team has a defense worth hanging its hat on, and both squads are more efficient on the offensive side of the floor. The Beavers rank 129th in offensive efficiency but a ghastly 317th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The Ducks, meanwhile, are 57th in offensive efficiency but only 113th defensively.

It’s a high total but one we think is warranted. Oregon just allowed 94 points in the regular-season finale, while Oregon State has the 343rd scoring defense in the country.

Prediction: Over 144 (-110)

Best bet

Listen, we know it’s painful to back this putrid Oregon State basketball team.

However, consider this: Oregon hasn’t been much better at covering spread this season, going 11-19 ATS. The Ducks haven’t played well as the favorite for a while now, going just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall. They’re only 2-8 ATS over their last 10 and are now absent leading scorer Will Richardson.

Famous last words: Give us the Beavers!

Pick: Oregon State +9.5 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Oregon vs. Oregon State picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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