Ohio State vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Buckeyes Keep it Close

The Ohio State Buckeyes’ surprising run through the Big Ten tournament was put in serious jeopardy just before tip on Friday when their star Brice Sensabaugh was ruled out with knee soreness. 

Ohio State never flinched, blowing past Michigan State. But now the regular-season conference champions Purdue Boilermakers await, likely the end of the road for the Buckeyes’ dreams of crashing the NCAA tournament.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. Purdue on Saturday, March 11, with tip set for 1:00 ET.

Ohio State vs Purdue best odds

Ohio State vs Purdue picks and predictions

Sensabaugh’s Friday absence seemingly came out of nowhere. The quarterfinal before Ohio State vs. Michigan State had not yet finished when news broke that knee soreness would sideline Sensabaugh, but up until then, there had not been so much as murmurs. The line jumped from favoring the Spartans by 4.5 up to 6.5.

Regardless of the final result, that gave a clear indication of Sensabaugh’s value to a gambling line. The next question in assessing this game, with a spread favoring Purdue by 7 as Friday turns to Saturday, is to ascertain if it expects Sensabaugh to play or not. That’s a great question.

Let’s run down what we know.

Buckeyes head coach Chris Holtmann said Sensabaugh asked out of Ohio State’s Thursday win against Iowa. Speaking in Friday’s postgame, Holtmann said that came at about the five-minute mark on Thursday, but Sensabaugh actually subbed out with 3:17 left against the Hawkeyes.

Right there we can safely assume Sensabaugh is not bowing out on his team in preparation of the NBA draft as some loudmouths online have accused. It was a 3-piont game with three-plus minutes left. No player is deciding, at that moment, to call it a season.

Sensabaugh must have felt something in his knee then.

Holtmann said the star freshman would undergo testing Friday night. One could wonder why that was not done Thursday night, but some trust should be put in Sensabaugh’s personal experience. He suffered two meniscus injuries in high school, a big part of what diminished his recruiting profile despite clearly having the skills of a likely first-round NBA draft pick. Few schools saw that in him because he did not play all that much.

Could he play against the Boilermakers? It seems he could, but it depends what that testing shows.

Is that 7-point spread expecting him to? Here comes a wildly imperfect attempt at guessing via something comparable to the transitive property.

On Wednesday, Ohio State was a 1.5-point favorite against Wisconsin. No matter the final result, let’s surmise the Buckeyes were considered to be 1.5 points better than the Badgers. Less than a week earlier, Purdue was a 3.5-point favorite at Wisconsin. Add in three points of home-court advantage, it can be surmised the Boilermakers were considered to be 6.5 points better than the Badgers on a neutral court. From there, perhaps Ohio State can currently be considered five points worse than Purdue.

This flawed process is necessary because the Buckeyes have improved so drastically in the last couple weeks. They are no longer the wholly flawed team that lost by 27 in West Lafayette on Feb. 19. But they are still short of being on the same level as the Boilermakers.

If Friday’s line movement showed Sensabaugh to be worth two points to a spread, and Ohio State is five points worse than Purdue, then this seven-point spread does not expect the fulcrum of the Buckeyes’ offense to play.

Now enter a tried-and-true sports betting axiom: Sell on good news, buy on bad news. It’s an approach based around fading the public steam. People tend to overreact to headlines, particularly because they are usually baked into spreads. Exhibit A: That two-point jump toward Michigan State on Friday afternoon. Bookmakers probably noticed Sensabaugh’s late absence against Iowa on Thursday and adjusted by a point before Friday’s news.

Ohio State has proven it has found a groove that can sustain even without Sensabaugh. It has playmakers and defenders that have gelled. Yet, Sensabaugh’s presumed absence inflates this spread by two points.

He is an excellent player. Watching him Wednesday and Thursday was a delight. But as this line inflates, it is overcompensating for Sensabaugh’s absence.

Perhaps it rises further, if you want to wait and try to grab a bigger number. But as of the dark of night, a hook is available at one book, so let’s officially commit to that.

My best bet: Ohio State +7.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Ohio State vs Purdue spread analysis

That best bet is based on more than just fading an overreaction. Purdue is 12-18-2 against the spread this season and 8-11-2 in Big Ten play, including 0-4 in its last four games and 1-6 in its last seven.

Three of the Boilermakers’ four most-recent ATS failures came as favorites of 6.5 or 7 points. Sound familiar? In that 1-6 stretch across their last seven, they were favored in six of them, going 1-5.

Furthermore, the Friday ATS loss came largely as a result of Rutgers’ late-game press, utterly undoing Purdue’s backcourt. Well, Ohio State is better defensively without Sensabaugh, something Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo very clumsily pointed out after their meeting Friday.

“You look at with Sensabaugh out, I thought they played better,” Izzo said. “That's not an insult to him. Another 3-point shooter in there and definitely defensively (they were better).”

The Boilermakers turned over the ball on 18.4% of their possessions in Big Ten play, a failing that the Buckeyes are likely to exploit to chase a backdoor cover.

Ohio State vs Purdue Over/Under analysis

This total of 134 or 134.5 further suggests Sensabaugh will be out. Ken Pomeroy would set this total at 142. And, indeed, Sensabaugh’s absence on Friday dropped the total by two points.

Eight points is extreme, but some of that ties to the expectation that Sensabaugh will not play today. Purdue generally plays to the Under, 14-17-1 on the year, though an even 10-10-1 in conference play.

The Buckeyes without Sensabaugh would be without their leading scorer, most efficient scorer and most frequent playmaker, be it for himself or someone else. Izzo may have thought Ohio State played better Friday without Sensabaugh, but it is hard to imagine its offense clicking well enough again to threaten any pregame total.

The argument above may have been to buy on bad news, but that is an attempt to fade a public market. The public generally does not dabble as much in totals, so the theory does not apply as strongly here.

Ohio State vs Purdue betting trend to know

Ohio State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games, including four games where it was an underdog of 4.5 to 7 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Purdue.

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