Northwestern vs Penn State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Fail Math Test

Were you told there would be no math? There will be math here today. The Northwestern Wildcats face a math problem tonight against the Penn State Nittany Lions, and as good of a school as Northwestern is, that math problem should prove too challenging to advance to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Penn State vs. Northwestern on March 10, with tip set for 6:30 ET.

Northwestern vs Penn State best odds

Northwestern vs Penn State picks and predictions

Three is more than two. It’s that simple.

One of these teams shoots threes very well and wakes up each morning ready to shoot them often. The other of these teams allows opponents to shoot threes more often than something that happens often. The proper analogy is not coming to consciousness’ surface at the moment, because that is just how often Northwestern opponents chuck from deep.

Saying it is as often as you eat a meal would be a drastic understatement given Wildcats’ conference opponents shoot from beyond the arc on 40.1% of their field-goal attempts. You do not spend 40% of your day eating unless you just learned your favorite BBQ place is closing. (That example was not pulled out of thin air. Gonna miss you, Eat Street Social.)

Sometimes that kind of defensive emphasis can be considered an asset, but Northwestern does not make opponents shoot terribly from deep. In fact, their 3-point percentage against ranks No. 10 in the Big Ten, with opponents shooting 35.4% from deep. The Wildcats should try to cut down on opponents shooting from deep instead of encouraging it.

This is the wrong opponent to take that approach against. Penn State shot more threes than any other Big Ten team, by far. The Nittany Lions shoot threes so often, the only analogy that would be vaguely accurate is that they shoot threes as often as you breathe oxygen. Think about it, half your time is spent inhaling, half your time is spent exhaling. Penn State took 47.8% of its field-goal attempts from beyond the arc in Big Ten play this season. And they made 39.4% of them, No. 2 in the conference.

That’s the math problem Northwestern must solve. Naturally allowing opponents to chuck from deep is a viable approach for some teams. Allowing them to do it successfully is a worry. Allowing Penn State to spot up will cost you.

Well, it will cost you unless you see the value in that math and hop on the Nittany Lions outright tonight. Do that and you can pay for takeout one last time from your favorite BBQ spot before it closes.

My best bet: Penn State moneyline (+115 at Caesars)

Northwestern vs Penn State spread analysis

Penn State as a short underdog today is not surprising given it was a 4.5-point underdog at Northwestern just nine days ago. Ken Pomeroy gives 2.7 points to the Wildcats for home-court advantage, suggesting that game would have been about a 1.5- or 2.0-point spread on a neutral court, as today is.

And, fittingly enough, that is today’s spread.

What that overlooks is that the Nittany Lions won that March 1 game in overtime, shooting 13-of-29 from deep to do so. That was the third-straight loss for Northwestern in a late-season swoon only righted at shorthanded Rutgers in the regular-season finale.

Putting confidence in the Wildcats after that dip would be bold.

Northwestern vs Penn State Over/Under analysis

The Nittany Lions’ propensity to enjoy life behind the arc led to them going 13-8-1 to the Over thus far in Big Ten play, including clearing Thursday’s total by 15 points. So easily clearing a lofty total of 140 when playing Illinois — 8-11-1 to the Under in regular-season Big Ten play — made Penn State’s tourney intentions clear.

The Nits will clear out for Jalen Pickett, let him create and enjoy the results. Pickett scored only 12 points on Thursday, but he added eight rebounds and eight assists. Penn State sharpshooters like Andrew Funk were the beneficiaries, Funk going 6-of-9 from deep.

Northwestern is generally an Under team, going 11-19-1 to the Under on the season and 1-8-1 in its last 10, but if the Nittany Lions are clicking from deep as they always seem to be, a total as low as 130.5 should be in danger.

Northwestern vs Penn State betting trend to know

The Over is 6-2-1 in Penn State’s last nine games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Northwestern vs. Penn State.

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