North Texas vs Oklahoma State NIT Predictions, Odds, and Picks: All Signs Points Under

A temporary break in March Madness odds means attention turns to the North Texas Mean Green, who will look to continue their deepest-ever run in the NIT when they visit the Oklahoma State Cowboys for a quarterfinal matchup on Tuesday.

North Texas (28-7) has rolled through its first two games, beating the Alcorn State Braves and the Sam Houston Bearkats by double digits on its way to the quarterfinals.

Oklahoma State (19-15) fought off a tough challenge from the Youngstown State Penguins in the first round, then got past the Eastern Washington Eagles on Sunday.

These two teams are very evenly matched, though the Cowboys have a home-court advantage. We’ll break down who has the edge in our college basketball picks for North Texas vs. Oklahoma State on March 20.

North Texas vs Oklahoma State best odds

North Texas vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions

The Oklahoma State Cowboys narrowly missed out on reaching March Madness. Despite finishing with a 17-15 record, the fact they played in the Big 12 — universally seen as the toughest conference in college basketball — kept them on the bubble until the final days of the season.

Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they were among the first four teams out of the NCAA Tournament and had to settle for a No. 1 seed in the NIT.

North Texas didn’t get such consideration. When the Mean Green lost to the UAB Blazers in the semifinals of the Conference USA Tournament, they knew they had lost any realistic chance of reaching March Madness, despite rating highly in the NCAA’s NET Rankings. That set North Texas up for an NIT bid, where it earned a No. 2 seed. 

That leads us to Tuesday’s showdown. While they reached this point in two very different ways, OSU and North Texas profile very similarly. KenPom has the Mean Green as the slightly better team, while Sagarin thinks the Cowboys are about 1.5 points better. Both teams are better on the defensive end than they are at scoring and North Texas plays at the slowest pace in the entire country. 

In other words, we can expect this to be a tight, low-scoring game between two quality teams. And while Oklahoma State played against tougher competition this year, I think that North Texas actually has the edge on Tuesday.

The Mean Green doesn’t just play slowly, they also play tough on defense. That combination has led them to give up just 55.4 points per game, the lowest total in the country. North Texas holds its opponents to just 40.1% shooting and .914 points per possession.

It’s fair to wonder if better competition would change those numbers, but there’s at least one sign that this isn’t the case. The Florida Atlantic Owls — now in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament — averaged just 58 points against North Texas this year, despite rating highly in offensive efficiency. 

Oklahoma State will struggle to do any better. The Cowboys play at an average pace, yet score just 69.5 points per game. They don’t shoot the ball well and rank 140th in offensive efficiency at KenPom. Even adjusting for their difficult Big 12 schedule, this just isn’t a team that puts up points, especially against one of the top defenses in the country.

OSU plays solid defense as well, holding opponents to 66.8 points per game. In fact, KenPom rates its defense even higher than North Texas’, putting the Cowboys at 12th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Mean Green try to make the most out of their time with the ball, but when you only average 61.5 possessions per game, you’re never going to score much.

This should be a uniquely difficult matchup on the offensive end for both teams. That’s why the total is set at just 124 points. It’s also why I think that number is still too high, as hard as that might be to believe at first glance. I’m all over the Under in this game between two teams that will struggle to approach 60 points on Tuesday night.

My best bet: Under 124 (-110 at Caesars)

North Texas vs Oklahoma State spread analysis

The spread on Tuesday’s game has opened at Oklahoma State -5, with most sites holding steady at that number.

North Texas has played well against the spread this year, going 19-14 ATS on the year. The Cowboys have been more pedestrian, putting up a 16-18-1 ATS record this season.

As I talked about in the previous section, these teams rate out very similarly. The one additional factor we have to consider is Oklahoma State’s home-court advantage, as the NIT has the higher seeds host games until the semifinal round. 

There are two reasons to think that this isn’t enough to provide the Cowboys with enough of an edge to cover the spread. First, the expected low-scoring nature of this game slightly diminishes how much we should tilt the line toward the home team.

Secondly, Oklahoma State simply isn’t playing well as of late. The Cowboys are just 4-6 straight up over their last 10 games and 2-7-1 ATS over that span. 

If this game were on a neutral court, I’d pick North Texas to be the favorite. In fact, I still like the idea of taking the Mean Green on the moneyline at +185. However, the best approach is to take the points. In a game that could be decided in the 50s, that’s a much bigger cushion than it looks. 

North Texas vs Oklahoma State Over/Under analysis

The total on Tuesday’s game opened at 124 points. However, some books have gone even lower, posting an Over/Under of 123. 

These are obviously very low numbers and may tempt the public to take the Over. After all, how can two solid college basketball teams fail to get to a total of at least 125 points?

Well, the Mean Green have done so in five of their last seven games. Even OSU has gone below that total in two of their last four, all while hitting the Under in all four of those contests. These are two teams that are not afraid to play slow, low-scoring slogs, especially when it comes to North Texas.

It’s important to remember that the Mean Green aren't just slow. They play at the most deliberate pace of any team in the country and do so by a fairly wide margin. Virginia is the team the public knows best for leisurely sitting on the ball and North Texas averages 2.5 fewer possessions per game than they do.

When you consider that neither of these teams are dynamic on offense, and both are outstanding at limiting opportunities for their opponents, 124 begins to look downright aspirational. I’m confidently backing the Under in this game.

North Texas vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in Oklahoma State’s last four games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Texas vs. Oklahoma State.

North Texas vs Oklahoma State game info

North Texas vs Oklahoma State key injuries

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