Nebraska vs Minnesota Odds, Picks and Predictions: Fading the Cornhuskers in First True Road Test

While Nebraska has been beating up on cupcake opponents to start the season, Minnesota has competed hard against several top teams. As we break down below, we think the Golden Gophers are better suited to get a win tonight — especially at home.

Dec 6, 2023 • 10:15 ET • 4 min read
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If Big Ten basketball on a Wednesday night in December sounds good, I have a terrific matchup for you with the Nebraska Cornhuskers taking on the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Center.

Nebraska opened the season with a seven-game winning streak but was blown out at home by Creighton last time out. Minnesota opened their Big Ten season Sunday with a loss at Ohio State to drop its record to 5-3. 

Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds and give my free college basketball picks for Nebraska vs. Minnesota on December 6.

Nebraska vs Minnesota best odds

Nebraska vs Minnesota picks and predictions

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have gotten off to a fast start. They won seven straight before being buried at home by Creighton. The Cornhuskers knocked down 9% of their triple attempts, shot 33% from the field, and erased that seven-game winning streak.

It isn’t shameful to lose to a KenPom's No. 5-ranked team but getting blown out at home by 29 and chucking up hay bales in your own barn isn’t the best way to prepare for your Big Ten opener and your first true road game of the season.

A closer look at the Cornhuskers' schedule reveals that six of their seven wins have come against teams ranked 192nd or higher on KenPom's rankings, and their seventh win was by 10 at home over No. 85 Duquesne.

Nebraska hasn’t shot it well from inside or outside the arc, but they didn’t have to shoot well to win against cupcakes in their gym. They have a low turnover rate and are above average from the charity stripe but have enjoyed just a +6.1 rebounding margin playing at home against inferior competition.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have had a different story to their season. They’ve played three teams inside KenPom's Top 100, lost them all, but covered +2.5 at home to Missouri, failed to cover +4.5 on a neutral court to San Francisco, and covered the +12.5 this past Sunday at Ohio State.

The Golden Gophers convincingly beat the teams they should, competed hard against superior competition, and have covered the spread in every home game they’ve played thus far. They should cover against Nebraska.

Minnesota forward Dawson Garcia has been a load to handle. He leads the team in scoring, snags a team-high 8.1 rebounds, and Nebraska doesn’t have the size down low to stop the kid. Cam Christie is draining 51% of his triple attempts, and Elijah Hawkins is one of the best distributors in the conference. 

Nebraska guard Keisei Tominaga is a nice player, as is forward Rienk Mast. Still, Nebraska doesn’t shoot very well from downtown, nor have they dominated anyone inside yet. That makes it difficult to back the Cornhuskers in their first conference and true road games of the season.

Finally, Minnesota has played better competition, has one Big Ten game under their belt, and is 7-1-0 ATS. They have a size advantage, have better shooters, and make free throws.

Playing at home gives them an edge over a Nebraska group that hasn’t played together in a hostile environment yet this season. Take the points with Minnesota.

My best bet: Minnesota +3.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Nebraska vs Minnesota same-game parlay

Minnesota +3.5

Over 147.5

Nebraska scores points from downtown, and nearly 45% of their field goal attempts are from beyond the arc. They can put up a significant number when Tominaga gets hot, but they look lost when the shots aren’t falling.

Playing in a hostile environment after shooting just 9% from long range won’t be easy, and I don’t believe they’ll make enough triples to cover against the Golden Gophers who have covered in seven of eight games this season.

These teams don’t play a fast tempo, but each group has been involved in some high-scoring affairs. Nebraska has scored 80+ in six of its eight matchups, while Minnesota has scored 80+ in half of their games. Neither team plays much defense and this total may be a bit low for this one. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Nebraska vs Minnesota spread and Over/Under analysis

FanDuel opened at Minnesota +3.5 (-118), and that remains the best number by far considering other books are sitting around +1.5 and +2. 

Nebraska backers can find -1.5 (-110) at DraftKings, while Caesars has -2.0 (-110). You’ll want to play the -1.5 at DK before it moves to -2 or even -2.5. 

Caesars opened the total at 146.5 (-110) but it's already risen to 148 (-110). The best number is Over 147 at DraftKings, and I expect that number to reach as high as 149 or more by tip-off. The public loves high-scoring games, and their money drives these numbers. 

Under bettors can find 148 (-110) at bet365 and Caesars. That’s the best number, but watching the number rise at Caesars leads me to believe the number could get to 150. So hold off on the Under and maybe get 150 pregame, or wait and bet in-game.

My moneyline lean is Minnesota +126 at FanDuel. Nebraska has not played a difficult schedule and its first game in a hostile environment may not end well. Maybe we can get a better price, and if I see +140, I’m tapping the counter. 

Nebraska vs Minnesota betting trend to know

Minnesota is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Nebraska vs. Minnesota.

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Nebraska vs Minnesota game info

Location: Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Wednesday, December 6, 2023
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: Big Ten Network

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