The New Mexico Lobos find themselves favored over the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in tonight's NIT semifinal matchup.
My New Mexico vs. Tulsa predictions and college basketball picks break down why the favorites will cover on Thursday, April 2.
Tulsa vs New Mexico prediction
Who will win Tulsa vs New Mexico?
New Mexico: They have the more balanced profile of either team. There are also titling factors that tend to loom large in close games. Things like New Mexico averaging a forced turnover rate of just over 19% or an offensive rebound rate of just over 30%. There’s just more paths here.
Tulsa vs New Mexico best bet: New Mexico -3 (-110)
I suspect that the New Mexico Lobos will take away the actions that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane does best in the half-court. One thing that looms massively large is the Lobos' ranking in the 95th percentile in defending inside actions.
This is one of the core tenets of the Tulsa offense, and they run it extremely efficiently. Disrupting it is effectively disrupting all that Tulsa wants to do.
I also think New Mexico’s ability to force turnovers at 19% clip (47th best nationally) will force Tulsa to play at a slower pace than they’d prefer while also fueling transition opportunities for the Lobos.
COVERS INTEL: New Mexico posted a 30% offensive rebound rate this season, which isn’t a massive number, but looms large here given Tulsa was one of the worst rebound and scramble defenses in the country (Bottom 20th percentile).
Tulsa vs New Mexico same-game parlay
I’m selecting a Lobos star to exceed his points total, which naturally aligns with my best bet for this game.
Deyton Albury has gone over this number in two of the last three games, but more importantly, this matchup is favorable.
He’s the highest usage transition scorer for New Mexico, making him the most likely to benefit from those run-outs off turnovers.
Tulsa vs New Mexico SGP
- New Mexico -3
- Deyton Albury Over 12.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Lobos taking over on the glass
Tomislav Buljan has been an absolute menace on the offensive backboard for New Mexico and I expect the Lobos to live there.
Given this convergence of things, I took him to exceed his rebound total. I paired that with the Under. The gamescript sets up for it but I also projected this total at 158.5.
Tulsa vs New Mexico SGP
- New Mexico -3
- Deyton Albury Over 12.5 points
- Tomislav Buljan Over 10.5 rebounds
- Under 161.5
Tulsa vs New Mexico odds
- Spread: Tulsa +3.5 (-110) | New Mexico -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tulsa +155 | New Mexico -185
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
Tulsa vs New Mexico betting trend to know
Tulsa has hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Tulsa vs. New Mexico.
How to watch Tulsa vs New Mexico
| Location | Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Thursday, April 2, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Tulsa vs New Mexico key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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