The Mississippi Rebels are on a wildly unexpected run, but it is one the Arkansas Razorbacks are well-equipped to end, less vulnerable to shooting variance than Alabama or Georgia was.
My Mississippi vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks expect normalcy to return to the SEC Tournament on Saturday, March 14.
Mississippi vs Arkansas prediction
Mississippi vs Arkansas best bet: Arkansas -9.5 (-110)
How did the Mississippi Rebels spring three upsets in three days? Shooting variance.
In SEC play, Mississippi shot 32.1% from deep, second-worst in the conference, while allowing opponents to hit 34.2% of their deep looks.
In the last two games — upsets of Alabama and Georgia — those numbers have more than flipped. The Rebels shot 17 of 39 (43.6%) from deep in those wins, while the Tide and Bulldogs combined to shoot 18 of 67 (26.9%).
The Arkansas Razorbacks will not fall into that risk, allowing the No. 2 opposing 3-point rate in the SEC while rarely taking threes themselves.
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Mississippi vs Arkansas same-game parlay
As the fatigue zaps Mississippi and this Cinderella run comes to an end — mercifully for bubble hopefuls like Miami (OH), Auburn, and Oklahoma — expect a long scoreless stretch from the Rebels that also undoes any thoughts of chaos after the final media timeout.
Mississippi vs Arkansas SGP
- Arkansas -9.5
- Under 159
Our beyond the arc SGP: Rebels run out
This seems bold, but it is logical. The Rebels’ legs should give out at some point. Their last two games were at a decent pace, and the Razorbacks are likely to go even faster. Mississippi may hang in for a half, but eventually its shots should fall far short.
Mississippi vs Arkansas SGP
- Arkansas -9.5
- Mississippi first-half +5
Mississippi vs Arkansas odds
- Spread: Mississippi +9.5 | Arkansas -9.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi +375 | Arkansas -500
- Over/Under: Over 159 | Under 159
Mississippi vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Even with these three upsets, four straight Mississippi games have gone Under their totals by an average of 10.25 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Arkansas.
How to watch Mississippi vs Arkansas
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, March 14, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Mississippi vs Arkansas key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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