Michigan State vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks and Predictions: Back the More Proven Program

The Spartans are off to a nice start under legendary coach Tom Izzo and will look to prevail over the Fighting Irish tonight in South Bend. Find out where the betting edge lies in our Michigan State vs. Notre Dame betting picks.

Last Updated: Nov 30, 2022 1:51 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
A.J. Hoggard Michigan State Spartans NCAAB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The ACC/Big 10 challenge rolls on when the 20th-ranked Michigan State Spartans travel to Indiana to face off with Notre Dame.

Sparty has surprised a few to open the season. They were mightily impressive in the second game of the season when they lost on a buzzer-beater to Gonzaga. They followed that up with successive wins against Kentucky and Villanova. Since that early season barrage, they've lost to Alabama and defeated both Oregon and Portland. 

The Irish come into this one with a falter in its only real test of the season. They lost at St. Bonaventure after opening the season with five straight wins. That's never an easy place to get a dub, but it calls into question how good the Irish are.

What's the best bet when these two teams square off tonight? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Michigan State on November 30.

Michigan State vs Notre Dame best odds

Michigan State vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

Both of these teams have clear identities. Notre Dame wants to spread you out and slice you up on offense. Michigan State wants to dominate you and stifle your offense physically. Determining which team can best exert its will in this matchup will determine who wins the game. 

The scenario for Notre Dame to win this game has to be to get hot from deep. If it doesn't, I'm not sold that this team has enough half-court offense. In the Irish' last game, we saw what happened when their ball screen offense got stifled. St. Bonaventure held them to just 51 points and won by double-digits. It's not often you see Notre Dame produce that little on offense, but it speaks to a potential lack of shooters.

Cormac Ryan and Nate Laszewski are capable, but the former has been in a slump, making the latter much easier to guard. Guessing if Ryan can heat up here is tricky to figure out, but we have good data to suggest it doesn't happen.

ShotQuality has the Irish record a game worse, which says some of the early shooting could be lucky than not. Secondly, Michigan State is a slightly above-average spot-up defense, so it's unlikely he'll get a lot of comfortable looks.

Michigan State can do many of the same things that the Bonnies' did with their ball-screen defense. The Spartans' pick-and-roll defense ranks in the Top 15% of basketball. They've allowed just 0.59 points per possession off of those sets. That becomes massively impressive when you think about the quality teams that Michigan State has faced already.

The Spartans' offense is the weaker part of its team, but the good thing is that the Irish defense shouldn't offer much resistance. The offense runs through Joey Hauser and Tyson Walker, both of whom have favorable matchups. Hauser, in particular, should be able to take advantage of a defense allowing a point per possession off of screens. 

This is a matchup of a proven program against a team who has yet to show us who they really are. I'm going back to the proven commodity and also going to take the moneyline all the way up to -140. It's more of an EV+ play at that price than the points.

My best bet: Michigan State moneyline (-122 at FanDuel)

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Michigan State vs Notre Dame spread analysis

This spread would be a few ticks higher, and the moneyline price a tad more expensive if Michigan State proved it could win on the road yet. The Spartans have gotten some excellent neutral site performance, but their lone road trip yielded just a one-point win against Portland.

With that said, I will still back the more proven team. Sparty has already played teams such as Oregon, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Villanova, and Alabama. In those games, they've been able to manage a winning record. Notre Dame has faced one decent opponent in St Bonaventure and lost by double-digits.

I am still determining how much of a threat Notre Dame will be this season, but I have a fairly good idea of what Michigan State poses as a unit. Therefore, I'm backing the side with a tactical advantage as it should be more prepared for this matchup.

Michigan State vs Notre Dame Over/Under analysis

My projection for this game is a 72-65 win for Michigan State. That nearly lands precisely on the total, so it's a firm stay away for me. There are many questions about that Notre Dame offense.

The Irish have some capabilities to light it up, but they face an opponent that can lock them up. That adds to my desire to steer clear from a total in this game.

While the trends show that the Over is 5-0 in the last five Michigan State games and 5-0 in Notre Dame's last five midway games, the offensive unpredictability of Notre Dame is just too much to have any confidence in handicapping a solid side. 

Michigan State vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

Notre Dame is 1-5 in its last six games against the spread. Find more College basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Notre Dame.

Michigan State vs Notre Dame game info

Location: Purcell Pavillion, South Bend, IN
Date: Wednesday, November 30, 2022
Tip-off: 9:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2

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