Michigan State vs Maryland Big Ten Tournament Picks and Predictions: Spartans Exposed in Third Meeting

Michigan State took both games off Maryland this season, including the regular-season finale just a few days ago. Those meetings — and the Spartans' season — have shown us enough to fade the favorites. Read our Michigan State vs. Maryland picks for more.

Last Updated: Mar 10, 2022 12:12 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Fatts Russell Maryland Terrapins Big 10 tournament
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Maryland Terrapins and Michigan State Spartans have fresh game film to fork through for their Big Ten Tournament tilt on Thursday. 

These programs played each other in the regular-season finale just four days ago, with the Spartans edging the Terps 77-67 in East Lansing. Michigan State won both matchups with Maryland this season and is a 2.5-point neutral-site NCAA basketball betting favorite for this Round 2 contest of the Big Ten tournament.

Check out our free college basketball picks and predictions for Maryland vs. Michigan State on March 10.

Michigan State vs Maryland odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Michigan State hit the board as low as -2.5 on Wednesday and has been bet up as high as -3.5 at some sportsbooks. The total opened at 142.5 points and has dropped three points since, sitting as low as 139.5 as of Thursday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Michigan State vs Maryland predictions

Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Michigan State vs Maryland game info

Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: Big Ten Network

Michigan State at Maryland betting preview


Michigan State: None.
Maryland: None.

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Betting trend to know

The Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Maryland.

Michigan State vs Maryland picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The last time Michigan State won a basketball game outside of the Breslin Center was a trip to Maryland on February 1. Since that 65-63 victory, MSU has lost five in a row away from home and faces another foreign venue inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis tonight. 

The Spartans stumbled to the finish line in the second half of conference competition. Outside of a final win over the Terrapins and a stunner over Purdue, MSU lost five of its last seven games. 

Michigan State barely pulled off that victory in the season finale, blowing a 20-point halftime lead to watch Maryland pull within three points in the second half. That near comeback was just the Terrapins’ second loss in the final six games of Big Ten play. 

This Terps team put in 80 minutes of fantastic basketball in wins over Minnesota and Ohio State in the two games prior to that one bad first half versus MSU, then beat Sparty by 10 in the final 20 minutes of the finale. 

In that three-game stretch, Maryland’s offensive efficiency has spiked to 1.124 (vs. 1.016 beforehand) and MU doesn’t see its offensive output dip much at all when playing away from home, so the Terps will be fine on the neutral court in Indy.

Michigan State, on the other hand, sees significant downturns when leaving East Lansing. And while this isn’t a true road game, MSU’s drop-off from a +10.8 margin to a -2.7 away from home needs to be noted. 

This spread is shrinking after getting as high as MSU -3.5, but you can still find Maryland +3. Even with that recent loss to Sparty, the Terrapins are playing much better basketball at this point in the season.

Prediction: Maryland +3 (-110) 

Over/Under analysis

The Spartans don’t have the same energy outside of the Breslin Center and are void of a go-to scorer, with no standout talent to take over if — and when — the offense goes stale. That said, Maryland isn’t the toughest nut to crack on the defensive end.

The Terps finished 12th in defensive efficiency in the Big Ten and have allowed three of their last four opponents to post 73 points or more. They’re not great at protecting the perimeter, allowing foes to shoot 35.2% from beyond the arc (272nd), and that can lead to extended runs — like we saw in both the first and second halves at MSU last weekend.

Maryland can combat those defensive shortcomings with an improved offensive approach. The Terrapins' effective field goal rate has jumped to 52.3% over the last three games and this lineup can pull points from all five starters — four of which average double figures on the season. The potent backcourt combo of Fatts Russell and Eric Ayala combined for 35 points in that last matchup with MSU, with the 77-67 final going Over the 142.5-point total.

Prediction: Over 139.5 (-110)

Best bet

Beating a team three times in one season is a tough task and a look at current form leans to the Terps, despite them losing at Michigan State in the final game of the schedule.

The Spartans have a deeper bench than Maryland, which is very dependent on its starters, but the sum of all those players still comes up short measured against the scoring consistency of MU. 

The Spartans have just one player averaging double figures (Gabe Brown, 11.5 ppg) and don’t get consistent efforts from the likes of Malik Hall, Max Christie, Tyson Walker, and A.J. Hoggard. To ask all those guys to suddenly show up, away from home, with postseason pressure weighing in, is asking a lot.

Tom Izzo often gets the benefit of the doubt come tourney time, but this is one of his least talented teams in a while for the Hall of Fame coach. We’ll grab the points with the better team on Thursday night.

Pick: Maryland +3 (-110)

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Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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