Marquette vs Xavier Odds, Picks and Predictions: Kolek Absence Changes Dynamic for Golden Eagles

As the college basketball regular season wraps up, the Marquette Golden Eagles hit the road without their best player in their Big East finale against the Xavier Musketeers.

Despite an injury to reigning Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek, the college basketball odds have Marquette as a 3-point favorite in the Cintas Center. Down Kolek, and with Xavier’s offense looking shaky at times, this could be a low-scoring conference closer.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Marquette vs. Xavier on Saturday, March 9.

Marquette vs Xavier best odds

Marquette vs Xavier picks and predictions

The Marquette Golden Eagles have been one of the best teams in college basketball this season, ranking No. 8 in the latest AP Poll, and have several All-Big East level players. Chief among them was point guard Tyler Kolek, last year’s conference player of the year and leader in assists per game in the Big East this season.

Kolek, who transferred from George Mason to join the Golden Eagles for head coach Shaka Smart’s first season in 2021-22, has been an integral part of Marquette becoming a perennial threat in March.

After suffering an oblique injury against Providence, it was announced Kolek would miss at least the rest of the regular season. Marquette has lost both its games without him so far, against No. 12 Creighton and No. 2 UConn, while averaging just 71 points.

The Xavier Musketeers are nowhere near the level of those two Big East powerhouses, but without Kolek, the Golden Eagles offense clearly struggles and that should have the Under in good shape with the game total set at 158.

This season, Kolek’s 15 points and 7.6 assists per game have helped Marquette put 78.3 points in conference play and rank 22nd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. However, without the engine that makes the whole offense go, Smart’s squad could have some trouble against a Xavier defense that’s 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

On the season, Sean Miller’s Musketeers are holding opponents to 73.8 points per game and have been capable of creating turnovers in Big East play. Xavier is third in the conference with 6.9 steals per game in Big East play, and has three players averaging at least 1.2 steals per game.

That ability to put pressure on ball handlers will come in handy against a Marquette team down its star point guard. Overall, Xavier has had its struggles defensively, but has only allowed opponents to shoot 42.7% from the floor, 47.9% from two, and 33.2% from three, all Top-170 in the country.

Where Xavier could really run into some trouble though is against this Golden Eagles defense. While the Musketeers are scoring 76.2 points per game in conference play and putting up plenty of shots (64.1 per game) thanks to their fast tempo, it’s been an inefficient offense.

The Musketeers are shooting just 42.5% in Big East games, third-worst in the conference and aren’t a team that leans heavily on the pulling from behind the arc, hitting just 7.1 threes per game. 

It’s going to be difficult for an offense that’s 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency to generate consistent scoring against Marquette’s defense. The Golden Eagles are keeping teams to just 69.5 points per game while ranking third in defensive rating in the Big East, per EvanMiya, and 16th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Not only has Marquette been hard to shoot against in conference play, with opponents hitting 43% from the field, but no team has been better at forcing turnovers. The Golden Eagles lead the conference with 8.9 steals per game in Big East play, and even without Kolek’s 1.6 steals per game, Marquette has five other players averaging at least a steal in conference games.

Guard Stevie Mitchell has been picking up 2.1 steals per game against Big East teams while Oso Ighodaro is adding 1.1 and leading the team in blocks per game with 1.4. Ighodaro and fellow forward David Joplin should make things difficult with their size for a Xavier team that plays multiple guards under 6-foot-3 and is only hitting only 46.2% of its twos.

With Kolek’s absence impacting Marquette’s ability to score, and Xavier being one of the most inefficient shooting teams in the Big East, this could be a game short on points.

My best bet: Under 158 (-110 at bet365)

Marquette vs Xavier same-game parlay

Under 158.5 

Quincy Olivari Under 18.5 points 

Oso Ighodaro Over 3.5 assists 

+400 at bet365

Xavier guard Quincy Olivari has been its leading scorer with 19.1 points per game this season, but the Rice transfer has been an inconsistent shooter in Big East games. He’s seen his shooting percentage drop to 42% in conference play and will have to deal with an aggressive Marquette defense. 

In three of his last four games, including in a loss to Marquette, Olivari has scored 16 points or fewer and even without Kolek, the Golden Eagles have the talent to fill the void. Leading that talent is Oso Ighodaro.

The 6-foot-9 forward is second on the team in assists this season behind Kolek and has averaged 3.1 in conference play. Marquette is going to need him to set its scorers up while its point guard is on the mend.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Marquette vs Xavier spread and Over/Under analysis

After dropping two straight games with point guard Tyler Kolek out, the Marquette Golden Eagles opened favored by as few as 1.5 points against a lackluster Xavier Musketeers program. The line has trended in Marquette’s favor as tip-off approaches, with most books now offering Marquette -2.5 to -3.

Shaka Smart’s team has been a solid cover all season, going 17-12-1 ATS and 8-3 over its last 11. Xavier, on the other hand, is just 15-15 ATS and 1-7 in its last 8. The Golden Eagles covered the 11.5 points they were favored by in the previous matchup.

Despite Kolek being out, the game total opened as high as 159 and has since come down to 158 at most books. Marquette is 18-12 betting the Under this season, while Xavier is 14-16 but 5-3 in its last eight. With the game total at 160.5 in the previous game, the Under hit with the two combining for 

Marquette vs Xavier betting trend to know

Marquette has hit the Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.85 Units / 26% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. Xavier.

Marquette vs Xavier game info

Marquette vs Xavier key injuries

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