Princeton vs Arizona Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Tigers Profile Well Against Wildcats

Tommy Lloyd and the No. 2 seed Arizona Wildcats (28-6) enter the NCAA Tournament as the Pac-12 Champions and are one of the top teams in March Madness odds. 

First, they must get through the Princeton Tigers (21-8). The Tigers, coached by Mitch Henderson, won the Ivy League title en route to earning a No. 15 seed. The two face off in the South Region, taking the court at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento on Thursday.

Will Arizona roll as the favorite, or will Princeton have a few tricks up its sleeve in our March Madness picks? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Princeton vs. Arizona on March 16.

Princeton vs Arizona best odds

Princeton vs Arizona picks and predictions

Tommy Lloyd made his name as a Gonzaga assistant for 20 years, helping form one of the country’s elite programs while being credited as primarily responsible for the Zags’ success with international recruiting. Arizona hired him two years ago and hasn’t looked back, notching a sterling 61-10 record under his guise while playing at an extremely high level.

Lloyd's influence on Arizona’s roster is easy to see. Four of the Wildcats’ top five scorers come from overseas: Lithuania’s Azuolas Tubels (19.8 points per game), Oumar Mali’s Ballo (14.2 ppg), Sweden’s Pelle Larsson (10.2 ppg), and Estonia’s Kerr Kriisa (10.1 ppg).

UCLA dominated the Pac-12 regular season, but it was Arizona who won the conference tournament on a late Courtney Ramey 3-pointer. The Wildcats rank 10th overall in KenPom and are also fourth in adjusted efficiency and 41st in defensive efficiency.

Princeton checks in all the way down at 112th in KenPom, coming in at 103rd in offensive efficiency and 137th in defensive efficiency. The Tigers run their offense through point-forward Tosan Evbuomwan, who leads the team in points (15.0) and assists (4.8) per game.

The RPI rankings rate the Ivy league as the 15th most-difficult conference out of 33, so it’s no cakewalk. While Princeton’s road to the tournament wasn’t paved in gold, it also wasn’t particularly treacherous. KenPom rates the Tigers’ strength of schedule as 222nd nationally.

Princeton wasn't really tested in non-conference play, losing to Iona 70-64 in a lone matchup against an NCAA Tournament team. The Tigers have an interesting offensive profile in that they take only 34.4 2-point shots per game (244th nationally) but are highly efficient at converting them, shooting at a clip of 53.8%. They prefer to take shots from behind the arc, tossing up 24.7 3-pointers per game (51st) but making them at just 34.4% (144th). 

Arizona’s paint defense is fearsome and led by two monsters, so those open layups may be hard to come by. The Wildcats rank fourth in opponent near-proximity attempt rate (Haslametrics) while ranking 34th in 2-point defense (45.9%). However, they are vulnerable when defending the deep shot, ranking 315th in opponent 3-point attempt rate. If Princeton gets hot from downtown, look out.

Both teams are proficient defensive rebounding teams, so don’t expect to see a lot of second-chance points. Princeton ranks third nationally in defensive rebounds per game while Arizona is right behind at fourth. Both are good rebounding teams overall, as Arizona ranks 13th in rebounding percentage while Princeton isn’t far behind at 21st. Princeton profiles similarly to Stanford, albeit being slightly shorter but rebounding at a higher rate.

The Cardinal gave the Wildcats all sorts of trouble this season despite finishing with a losing record. They pulled off a surprising 88-79 upset in Palo Alto in the regular season and then kept things very tight and uncomfortable in the Pac-12 tournament before ultimately succumbing to the Wildcats by a score of 95-84.

Stanford was able to give Arizona fits by moving the ball well offensively, shooting the ball effectively from deep, and pulling their weight on the boards. Princeton should be able to follow the Stanford game plan in this one and could keep things close for a while, albeit likely in a losing effort.

Arizona likes to pound the ball inside offensively and while Tubelis and Ballo likely get theirs, this matchup won’t exactly be easy cooking for them. Princeton’s strength defensively lies in protecting the rim as it ranks 30th in opponent near-proximity shooting (Haslametrics) and 24th field goal percentage allowed at the rim (52.7% per Hoop-Math).

Recent performance in the big dance favors Princeton as well. The Tigers are 4-0 against the spread in their last four NCAA Tournament games, whereas the Wildcats are 3-12-1 across their last 16 tournament showings.

My best bet: Princeton +14.5 (-109 at BetRivers)

Princeton vs Arizona spread analysis

The spread opened at Arizona -13.5 but has since moved to -14.5. Our Covers Consensus likes the Tigers at this number, as 56% of bets and 67% of the money are coming in on the Ivy League representative.

The Tigers finished the season on a heater, going 4-0 in their last four games overall. Could that all change against the Wildcats? I won’t be betting on it.

Princeton features decent size, as Evbuomwan stands 6-foot-7 while forwards Caden Pierce and Keeshawn Kellman stand 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-8, respectively. That size has been enough to feature an elite rim-protection defense in the Ivy League, but it’s a big question mark on how well that will hold up against monsters like Tubelis and Ballo.

Teams that can rebound well — Stanford, Oregon, Washington State, Utah — have all pulled off upsets over the Wildcats this season. If Princeton can hold its own on the boards and knock down some of the triples that Arizona will funnel defensively, it can keep this within the number.

Princeton vs Arizona Over/Under analysis

Be sure to shop around as the total currently resides between 153.5 and 154.5 depending on the book. There has been a lot of early love toward the Under, and that would have to be my preferred side.

Don’t expect Princeton to push the pace in this matchup, as the Tigers check in at 171st in adjusted tempo (KenPom). One would have to imagine that the game plan against a superior athletic Power Conference team involves slowing the game down and taking care of the ball to maximize each possession.

The good news is that Princeton does a pretty good job of taking care of the basketball, ranking 86th in turnovers per offensive possession (16.6%). Arizona isn’t known for forcing a ton of turnovers defensively, so I expect the Tigers to be able to slow this one down while hunting for open looks. Those won’t be easy to come by against an athletically superior and massive Arizona team, so I expect Princeton’s possessions to drag the pace of this game down as much as possible.

Arizona is an elite team at defending the rim, which takes away half of what Princeton wants to do offensively. Princeton also excels (relatively) at protecting the paint and rebounding misses, which limits some of Arizona’s strengths.

Both teams have trended toward the Under when playing on a neutral court — Princeton is 1-3 O/U in four games while Arizona is 3-4 O/U in seven games.

Princeton vs Arizona betting trend to know

Arizona is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following a win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Princeton vs. Arizona.

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