LSU vs Alabama Picks and Predictions: Fading the Tigers' Grim Offense

Alabama has lost three straight inside the SEC's walls, but are back home against LSU tonight. While the Tigers may have the nation's best defense, their offensive struggles has us leaning on Bama at home. Read more in our LSU vs. Alabama betting picks.

Last Updated: Jan 19, 2022 4:35 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jaden Shackelford Alabama Crimson Tide college basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide are going head-to-head Wednesday in SEC conference play. 

The 15-2 Tigers are coming off a home loss to Arkansas and have struggled to score of late, failing to reach 65 points in four of their last five outings.

Alabama is 11-6 on the year, including 2-3 in conference play, and will look to end its three-game skid tonight at home after losses to Mississippi State, Auburn, and Missouri. 

With both teams looking to bounce back in a tight SEC matchup, who has the edge? Find out in our college basketball betting picks and predictions for LSU vs. Alabama. 

LSU vs Alabama odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

When this game hit the board, it had Alabama as 2.5-point favorite at home, but the Tide are now laying as much as 4 points, with -3.5 still available in some spots.

The total opened at 145.5, was bet all the way up to 151 at some outlets, and has come back down with 148.5 and 149 taking up most of the board at the time of writing. Make sure you shop around to find the best number for your play.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

LSU vs Alabama predictions

Predictions made on 1/19/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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LSU vs Alabama game info

Location: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
Date: Wednesday, January 19, 2022
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2

LSU at Alabama betting preview

Injuries

LSU: Xavier Pinson G (Questionable).
Alabama: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 11-1 in LSU's last 12 games vs. teams with winning percentages above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Alabama.

LSU vs Alabama picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Despite their loss to Arkansas, the Tigers have gotten off to a great start to the season with their only other loss coming to the now 16-1 No. 2-ranked Auburn Tigers. 

LSU ranks 10th in KenPom's rankings, and mostly on the back of its defense. Not only do the Tigers lead the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, but there's a sizable gap between them and Texas Tech at No. 2.

However, the Tigers have struggled on the other end, especially lately. They rank 104th in adjusted offensive efficiency but have only averaged 64.2 points over their last five, a mark that would rank them just inside the Top 300 if it held up over a season. 

On the other hand, Alabama ranks 16th overall in KenPom's rankings, but is much more balanced, ranking 10th offensively and 53rd defensively. While the Tigers may have the nation's best defense, the Tide should still have an advantage on offense with the way LSU has struggled to score of late.

On top of that, LSU may be without its third-leading scorer Xavier Pinson. He's a game-time decision with a knee injury and could make LSU even easier to contain if he doesn't suit up.

While the Tide have lost three straight, it's been more about a struggle to close games than anything else. Three of their last four losses have come by four points or less, including one-point and two-point losses to Davidson and Mississippi State, respectively.

The Tide are back home and should be the more desperate team. And while this may be a tight affair for much of the night, the lack of Tigers scoring should rear its ugly head just enough for the Tide to win and cover the small number.

Prediction: Alabama -3.5 (-110)

While the Tide are averaging over 80 points per game and have gone Over the total in four straight, LSU's defense is in another tier. In their 17 games, the Tigers have held opponents to 60 points or less in 12 of them.

Further to that point: of LSU's 17 games, only one has reached the 150-point mark required for the Over in this game. That came in a game where the Tigers put up 95 against Lipscomb. 

When you consider LSU's recent offensive struggles, as well as Pinson's potential absence, you have the recipe for a game that stays Under the total.

Prediction: Under 149 (-110)

I view the total of 149 as being at least a few points too high, so I'm sticking with the Under as my best bet. 

Alabama's offense may be one of the better attacks LSU sees all year, but while the Tigers offense will struggle, the defense should be up for the challenge.

On the season, LSU is 13-4 to the Under, including 4-1 in their five conference games. Back it again here tonight.

Pick: Under 149 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our LSU vs. Alabama picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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