Kansas vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Longhorns Desperation Fuels Win

Having already clinched the Big 12 Regular Season Championship, the Kansas Jayhawks will look to put an exclamation point on their regular season today.

This is a big one for the Texas Longhorns. It's their last chance to notch another marquee win on their resume for the Big 12 tournament, and it would also go a long way in improving their seeding in the NCAA Tournament.

Could Kansas do it again? The defending National Champions have certainly looked the part over the past month. The Jayhawks are riding a seven-game winning streak, including wins over foes such as TCU and Baylor. They arrive at this one off a hard-fought win against Texas Tech. 

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Texas. 

Kansas vs Texas best odds

Kansas vs Texas picks and predictions

Kansas Head Coach Bill Self was asked on Wednesday if he'd consider resting his starters against Texas today — that's how little, on paper, this game means for the Jayhawks. However, despite what it says on paper, he disagreed.

"In a word, no," Self said. "This is a huge game. There's a lot to play for."

Regardless of Self's comments, Kansas and the rest of the team aren't above fighting human nature. And the reality is that it has little to play for. That matters to this handicap. We've talked about situational spots and how big they are in college basketball all season.

This one favors the Horns in a big way. Texas can improve its NCAA and Big 12 Tournament seeding with a win today. That and other aspects of this matchup are why we're rolling with the Longhorns as our best bet. 

The last time this pair met, Kansas won by eight. Jalen Wilson was kept quiet, but that was compensated for by three Jayhawk players hitting double-digits — including a big performance by Gradey Dick. Texas' defense has been the issue all season, and it wasn't good on that day.

The 105.5 points per possession it allowed was the second-highest it allowed all season. The good news is the team has made some late-season strides there. Yes, it has lost two straight, but losing in two games straight in the conference this good means very little, particularly when they come on the road.

Over the last three games, the Longhorns have allowed less than a point per possession: that's the first time they've done that in back-to-back conference games this season — let alone three in a row. I expect those improvements to show today. 

Offensively there are not many things that Texas has to do differently here. 

Much like Jalen Wilson having just two points in a game where Kansas scored 88 is alarming for the Longhorns, Tyrese Hunter having just six points in a game where Texas scored 80 is alarming for Kansas.

The Longhorns will need to get him going today, but as a whole, they'll need better production from role players. They got just a combined eight points from big man Dylan Disu and Christian Bishop. There's a path to doing so by targeting KJ Adams.

He's had some fantastic defensive moments this season. However, I still have real questions, particularly against bigs that can make him move laterally, which all Texas bigs can do. We saw that most recently against Iowa State when Osun Osunniyi scored 13 points and dominated the game.

This is simply the right time and right place for Texas. It's 2-0 in revenge spots this season, and I expect it to make it 3-0 today. 

My best bet: Texas -3.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Kansas vs Texas spread analysis

We're betting the Horns as our best bet today. 

In doing so, we're backing them to do what they've done all this season. They lost the first of two conference games against TCU and Kansa season. Then, they followed each of those losses up with two wins. Regardless of what Self says, it's human nature for Kansas players to take a breather here.

There's no more difficult skid to run through the Big 12, it's just done it and accomplished everything it wanted. That's impossible to quantify, but it can't mean zero. There's not much of a talent gap here, and there is more that Texas can do to improve on the previous matchup than Kansas. It's all about the Longhorns today. 

Kansas vs Texas Over/Under analysis

I'm going to be handsomely invested in Texas today. Given how much the number moved overnight, I'm anticipating getting in on some in-game action. That said, I don't have much interest in backing the total. 

Given the sheer athleticism and projected possessions of 75 or so, you have to like the Over. Still, I need more of an edge for me. The Jayhawks could come out flat, given the spot. While I don't expect them to, that possibility is higher than it would be for a regular game. If that happens, the Over could be cooked before it gets started, and that's not a position I want to put myself in. 

Games have gone Over to 9-2 in Texas' last 12 home games, and have also gone that way in four of the last five against a team with a winning record. So the trends suggest that's the direction, but it remains a stay away for me. 

Kansas vs Texas betting trend to know

The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Texas.

Kansas vs Texas game info

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