Illinois vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks and Predictions: Badgers Can't Catch a Break

Wisconsin has been sliding in the wrong direction, while Illinois continues to prove its earlier win over the Badgers was no fluke. See why our college basketball picks are once again back the road side to take care of business.

Jan 28, 2023 • 08:23 ET • 4 min read
Terrenece Shannon Jr. Illinois
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Wisconsin Badgers will look to solidify their tournament resume when they host the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday afternoon.

Illinois (14-6) already has a win over Wisconsin (12-7) this season, having beaten the Badgers at home 79-69 three weeks ago. 

Wisconsin will have a better chance in the rematch playing at home, but it will have to overcome its recent struggles if it wants to upset the Illini. We’ll break down what to expect from this Big Ten matchup in our college basketball picks and predictions for Illinois vs. Wisconsin on January 28.

Illinois vs Wisconsin best odds

Illinois vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

At one point, Wisconsin was ranked as high as No. 14 in the nation. But the Badgers began falling out of the national ranking picture when they lost to Illinois on January 7. That started a stretch in which Wisconsin has lost five of six games, dropping to 4-5 in the Big Ten. The situation has gotten dire for the Badgers, with ESPN’s Joe Lunardi listing Wisconsin as the last team in the NCAA Tournament field at the moment.

Wisconsin’s offense has struggled throughout the season, averaging just 65.8 points per game. But that total has dropped even further during its recent losing streak, averaging just 60 points over the last six games.

The saving grace for the Badgers this year has been their stellar defense. Wisconsin has been allowing just 63.4 points per game. Even with the slow pace they play at, there’s no denying that the Badgers defense has kept them in games. But even that has failed Wisconsin as of late. Not only did Illinois score 79 against the Badgers, but the Maryland Terrapins also broke through in a 73-55 victory over Wisconsin on Wednesday. 

While Wisconsin has been struggling, Illinois has been moving up in the Big Ten standings. The Fighting Illini have won five of their last six games, a trend that also started with the win over the Badgers. Like Wisconsin, Illinois is among the top defensive teams in the country, holding opponents to 64.3 points per game and 40.1% shooting from the field. 

But Illinois can also score on the offensive end of the floor. Not only are the Illini scoring 75.9 points per game, they’re consistent. Illinois has scored at least 65 points in nine of their last 10 games, the kind of production that an offense-challenged team like Wisconsin may have difficulty keeping up with.

Illinois is also the healthier team. While the Illini have no significant injuries, Wisconsin has been playing without starting guard Max Klesmit. The junior hasn’t played since January 17, when he was elbowed in the face. He remains uncertain for Saturday’s game.

Whether or not Klesmit plays, Illinois is the better team, playing better basketball right now, and can simply outscore Wisconsin. That’s what happened in the first meeting between these teams, and it’s a story I expect to repeat itself on Saturday afternoon. Illinois is only a slight favorite, and I’m happy to lay a couple points in a game that the Illini should win fairly comfortably.

My best bet: Illinois -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Illinois vs Wisconsin spread analysis

Illinois opened Saturday’s game as a meager one-point favorite. There has been some movement towards the Illini, and the consensus spread is now Illinois -1.5.

Illinois has been the better team against the spread this season. The Illini are 12-8 ATS, while Wisconsin is 8-11 ATS. 

But that gap looks even worse when you look at the recent efforts from the Badgers. Wisconsin has failed to cover the spread in nine straight games, and has come up short by at least 10 points in four of those games. Wisconsin is not only underperforming, it’s been doing so for well over a month now with no signs of a turnaround coming.

Yes, Wisconsin does play better at home, going 7-2 straight up on its home court this year. But the Badgers aren’t playing well enough to beat a solid Big Ten opponent right now, let alone one that has been on a hot streak over the last few weeks. Illinois -1.5 is the play in tonight’s game.

Illinois vs Wisconsin Over/Under analysis

Sportsbooks opened today’s game with a total of 131.5. That number has come up slightly, with some sites now making 132.5 the default Over/Under.

That number feels a bit low given the Illini’s offensive success this year. Sure, both teams can play defense, and the Badgers rarely score more than 65 points in a game. But Illinois has a different style of play, one that pushes the tempo a bit. The Illinois offense is led by senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (18 ppg), and he may benefit if Klesmit can’t play on Saturday.

One obvious but relevant data point to consider is the first game between these teams. In that contest, Illinois and Wisconsin combined for 148 points, well over Saturday’s total. Even if that was the high-water mark for a matchup between these teams, it went so far above the listed total that it can’t be ignored.

I think the total here is far too low. With Illinois scoring over 70 points on a regular basis and already proving it can outgun the Wisconsin defense, I don’t think this will be a low-scoring slog. There are still books offering this game at 131.5, but even if you have to go up to 132.5 by Saturday morning, I’d still be comfortable booking the Over.

Illinois vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Wisconsin.

Illinois vs Wisconsin game info

Location: Kohl Center, Madison, WI
Date: Saturday, January 28, 2023
Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

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