The No. 14 Illinois Fighting Illini face the No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers in Nashville tonight.
These schools are neck-and-neck according to every rating system, but there are a few reasons why my Illinois vs. Tennessee predictions are betting on the Vols to build an early lead.
See why with my best college basketball picks for this non-conference clash on Saturday, December 6.
Illinois vs Tennessee prediction
Illinois vs Tennessee best bet: Tennessee 1H -1.5 (-110)
The Tennessee Volunteers are 7-2 and pulled off an upset win against No. 8 Houston on a neutral site last week. However, they dropped their next two games, losing close contests to Kansas and Syracuse.
Meanwhile, the Illinois Fighting Illini have a 6-2 record with a home win against Texas Tech earlier in the season and recent losses to Alabama and UConn.
The Illini are 22nd in the country in 2-point percentage (60.7%), but Tennessee has an elite defense that can slow them down. The Vols don't allow many shots at the rim and rank 19th in the country in opponent 2PT% (44.1%).
The Illini are coming off a 74-61 loss to UConn, where they struggled with the Huskies' physicality. They have poor ball movement, and their heavy isolation offense could also struggle against Tennessee's hard-nosed defense.
The Vols' biggest weakness has been turnovers, but Illinois doesn't apply much ball-pressure and ranks just 360th in opponent turnover rate.
While this game is at a neutral site in Nashville, the Vols will have the travel advantage and plenty of familiarity with the venue. Expect them to come out strong and cover the first-half spread against an Illinois team that could be rusty after not playing since last Friday.
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Illinois vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Both teams are coming off low-scoring contests and are built to handle each other's offensive strengths.
As mentioned previously, Tennessee's interior defense can contain the Illini's ability to score inside. Meanwhile, the Vols' biggest offensive strength is their ability to attack the glass, and Illinois ranks 10th in defensive rebounding rate. That has me leaning towards the Under.
Four-star freshman Keaton Wagler began his career with standout games against Jackson State and Florida Gulf Coast. However, he has struggled against high-major foes, averaging just 7.3 ppg on 29% shooting in games against Texas Tech, Alabama, and UConn.
He was held to just eight points against UT Rio Grande Valley last week and had a short leash after that, playing just 14 minutes with three points against UConn. His rail-thin frame will get bullied by Tennessee tonight.
Illinois vs Tennessee SGP
- Tennessee 1H -1.5
- Under 150.5
- Keaton Wagler Under 10.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Slog!
Nate Ament is a Top-5 NBA prospect, but the Tennessee forward has logged fewer than 6.5 boards in four of his last five games, and Illinois is the best rebounding team he's faced.
Illinois vs Tennessee SGP
- Tennessee 1H -1.5
- Under 150.5
- Keaton Wagler Under 10.5 points
- Nate Ament Under 6.5 rebounds
Illinois vs Tennessee odds
- Spread: Illinois +1.5 (-105) | Tennessee -1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Illinois +115 | Tennessee -135
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
How to watch Illinois vs Tennessee
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, December 6, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Illinois vs Tennessee key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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