AAC action continues tonight when the No. 6 Houston Cougars (19-2, 8-0) travel to Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati for a contest with the Bearcats (15-6, 5-3).
The Cougars have mostly cruised through conference play and will look to move to 9-0 against a Bearcats team that has won four of their last five inside the AAC.
Will Cincinnati fall victim to Houston's AAC dominance or can they make it a game at home? Read our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Houston vs. Cincinnati to find out.
Houston vs Cincinnati odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Houston hit the board as 6-point favorites, a line that has seen little movement since opening. Meanwhile, the total opened at 131 but has jumped up to 132.5 after some action on the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
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Houston vs Cincinnati predictions
Predictions made on 2/6/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Houston vs Cincinnati game info
• Location: Fifth Third Arena, Cincinnati, OH
• Date: Sunday, February 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Houston at Cincinnati betting preview
Injuries
Houston: Tramon Mark G (Out), Marcus Sasser G (Out).
Cincinnati: Sam Martin G (Questionable), Rob Banks F (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-0 in Cincinnati's last seven games following an ATS loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Houston vs. Cincinnati.
Houston vs Cincinnati picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Even after season-ending injuries to leading-scorer Marcus Sasser and key contributor Tramon Mark, the Houston Cougars have yet to hit a speed bump. They're an undefeated 8-0 in AAC action, and 6-0 since Sasser went down to injury.
The Cougars, KenPom's fourth-best team, have been able to keep the train moving without Sasser in large part due to the improved play of Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards.
The 6-foot-4 guard averages a shade over 14 points per game on the season but has bumped that up to 20.4 over his last five games, including scoring outings of 29, 25, and 23.
A next-man-up style offense in combination with a stout defense that ranks 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency has allowed Houston to continue playing at a very high level. They've continued to move up the AP rankings (No. 6), have won 11 games in a row, and sit atop the ACC as the clear team to beat.
On the flip side, Cincinnati ranks 73rd overall on KenPom's rankings, including 104th offensively and 27th defensively. And while their mostly-average offense is much better at home, it could really struggle against a Cougars defense that only allows 56.5 points per game (second in the nation).
Cincinnati ranks outside of the Top 200 in nearly every shooting statistic, including effective field-goal percentage (263rd), 3-point percentage (266th), and free-throw percentage (305th).
And on top of that, the Cougars should be able to gain a handful of extra possessions crashing the offensive glass. Houston leads the country in offensive rebounding rate and is going up against a Cincy frontcourt that allows nearly 10 offensive rebounds a night (310th in the nation).
While Cincy is among the better teams in the ACC, there are none better than Houston. I expect the Cougars to showcase that tonight.
Prediction: Houston -6 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The total in this game sits at 132.5 at the time of writing and I'm leaning Under.
As mentioned, both squads are very strong on defense, ranking 12th and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.
On top of that, both teams play at a leisurely pace. Houston ranks 310th of 358 eligible teams in adjusted tempo and Cincy isn't that much higher at 174.
Cincinnati has also posted scoring marks of 61, 60, and 58 points in three of their last four games, all three of which stayed Under the total. Their shooting struggles in addition to Houston's defense could make 60 points a tough ask once again.
Lastly, these teams combine for an Under record of 24-16-1. Back it again tonight.
Prediction: Under 132.5 (-110)
Best bet
Aside from a couple of close games, Houston has made a habit of crushing AAC opponents this year, winning by an average margin of 15.1 points.
I expect Houston's defense to wear on Cincinnati as the game goes on, finding some second-half separation as a result.
Pick: Houston -6 (-110)
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