Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's Odds, Picks and Predictions: Watson Helps Zags Capitalize

What’s on the line for Saturday night’s big clash between the No. 23 Gonzaga Bulldogs (23-6, 13-2 WCC) and the No. 17 Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-6, 15-0)?

The nation’s longest winning streak and a perfect conference record, for starters. Saint Mary’s has won 16 straight games and will put its undefeated WCC record to the test. 

The Gaels have already clinched the regular season WCC title, but bragging rights are still at stake. Gonzaga is used to being atop the conference and is out for blood after finding itself on the bubble for much of the past month and losing to the Gaels in Spokane. 

Looking at college basketball odds, the Gaels are 2.5-point favorites, while the total has been set at 141.5.

Is it time to buy low on Gonzaga or acknowledge that Saint Mary’s is the superior team this season? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s on Saturday, March 2, to find out.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's best odds

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's picks and predictions

Just how good have the Saint Mary’s Gaels been this season? Randy Bennett’s squad has won 24 of its 30 games this year, including 16 in a row entering the weekend. Since the winning streak began on December 5, the Gaels rank as the eighth-best team in the country, per Barttorvik. 

One of those victories came in Spokane against the Gonzaga Bulldogs in a thrilling 64-62 victory in early February. 

How do they get it done? Suffocating defense, mainly. Saint Mary’s allowed just 58.1 ppg (second nationally) while limiting opponents to 38.7% on field goals (fourth) and 42.1% on 2-point shots (first). 

It also helps to have an efficient offense, and the Gaels do — since December 5, they rank 25th in Barttorvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency. Guards Aidan Mahaney (13.6 ppg) and Augustas Marciulionis (12.5 ppg) are the two leaders of the offense and are capable of finding their own shot inside and outside of the arc while also creating for others (7.7 combined assists per game). 

These are all reasons why I bet Saint Mary’s the first time around and was happy taking in the night’s events on February 3 — unlike the Gonzaga faithful, which started throwing projectiles onto the court in an ugly and embarrassing loss. 

Here’s the thing — Mark Few runs a proud program and won’t stay down for long. After finding themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble for what felt like the first time in forever, the Zags have responded with seven straight victories. Included in that run is a four-point win over No. 16 Kentucky in Lexington and an 18-point win on the road over third-place San Francisco on Thursday. 

The Zags are probably off the bubble if they have a strong finish to the year. They’re ranked inside the Top 25 in the AP Poll, are 17th overall in KenPom, and have gone dancing for 24 straight tournaments. They still don’t have an iron-clad resume, however — the Kentucky and San Francisco wins are their only two of the Quad 1 variety. After being unable to win tough games for much of the year, the Zags have responded with a very strong run to end the regular season.

I think this is a great spot to bet the Bulldogs. They’re playing their best basketball of the season and could really use a marquee win to feel more comfortable about their case come to Selection Sunday.  They face a Saint Mary’s team that has already wrapped up the regular-season crown and will be shorthanded with power forward Joshua Jefferson still out of the lineup.

Jefferson’s absence hasn’t come back to bite the Gaels yet, but it will eventually — he’s too good of a player to go missing without his team feeling any ill effects. He does a little bit of everything,
 and his team wouldn’t have won the first matchup without him, when he scored 16 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, dished four assists, and hit a clutch three that helped secure the victory. 

The Gaels are due to regress in their red-hot 3-point shooting. While they have capable shooters up and down the lineup, they aren’t as deadly as their recent results seem to indicate. They shot 44.3% from behind the arc in February. 

This forecasts as a close game, and it’s a question whether or not Saint Mary’s shaking free throw shooting will arise as an issue. The Gaels are shooting just 68.4% from the line (306th nationally), getting fouled at a low rate (17 attempted per game — 293rd), and proving inefficient once they do get to the stripe. 

I’ll take the Zags plus the points, which is always going to be appealing, considering they’ve won 10 of the last 13 meetings in this rivalry. 

My best bet: Gonzaga +2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's same-game parlay

Gonzaga +2.5 

Anton Watson 10+ points

Alex Ducas Over 2.5 threes made

20% boost available

+500 +600 at DraftKings

Forward Anton Watson is a versatile piece for Gonzaga, who averaged 14.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game. The fifth-year senior should be relied upon heavily in this matchup in a difficult road environment. 

He’s been in fine form lately, reaching double digits in 14 straight games and in 18 of his last 19. Saint Mary’s forces teams to the mid-range, ranking 315 in mid-range attempt rate defensively per Haslametrics. Watson is comfortable from that range, attempting 37.3% of his shots on two-point jumpers while hitting them at 43.7%, both of which rank second on the Zags among players who see meaningful playing time. 

The third leg of the SGP featured Saint Mary’s wing Alex Ducas to can at least three triples. If that sounds like a lot, it doesn’t to Ducas — he’s reached this number in six straight games and in seven of his last eight. 

He’s needed now more than ever sans Jefferson, and this isn’t a difficult matchup, as Gonzaga ranks 196th in 3-point attempt rate and 126th in 3-point defense vs. the average opponent defensively (both per Haslametrics). 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at Saint Mary’s -2.5, where it remains across most locations. The total has climbed from 139.5 to 141.5 at current. Track any further changes using our college basketball line movement tool throughout the day. 

The Zags haven’t quite played up to expectations this year at 13-15 ATS. That being said, they’re usually outsized favorites against teams they’re expected to crush, which has little relevance to this matchup. 

Few’s team has been an underdog just three times this season. First, they fell 63-73 as five-point dogs to Purdue in the Maui Invitational. No harm there — the Boilermakers are ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll and have been favored in all but one game, which they won. The second was a 63-76 loss to UConn at 3.5-point dogs, but no shame in that, as the Huskies are the No. 3 team in the nation. The other was a four-point win against Kentucky as 4.5-point dogs. 

As for the total, Gonzaga is 5-1 O/U in its last six games while Saint Mary’s is 4-0 O/U in its last four.

It’s always a fascinating matchup to see how the Zags’ high-flying offense contrasts with the Gaels’ meat-grinder defense. Gonzaga ranks fifth in scoring offense (86.1 ppg) while Saint Mary’s ranks second in scoring defense (58.1 ppg). 

One can expect the Gaels to slow this game to a halt per they check in at 356th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. I think Jefferson’s absence harms them on both ends of the court, so it’s a little difficult to forecast what will change since the first matchup. 

The last times these teams met, the total was just 138.5 and the game went under by 12.5 points. Why did it go up three points since then when the game is in Moraga, where Saint Mary’s is more likely to implement its slow pace? I see no reasonable explanation and therefore lean toward the Under. 

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's betting trend to know

Saint Mary’s is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games played in March. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's game info

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's key injuries

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