Gonzaga vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Nembhard Excels in Crucial Matchup

It’s unfamiliar territory for the Gonzaga Bulldogs (17-6, 8-2 WCC) but Mark Few’s squad could still use a few marquee wins to ensure it reaches the NCAA Tournament. This new territory is an unwelcome one — after falling this past Saturday to Saint Mary’s, the Zags are unranked for the first time since 2016.

A big opportunity awaits on Saturday in a terrific non-conference showdown with the No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (16-6, 6-4 SEC). Despite dropping each of its last two games at Rupp Arena, John Calipari’s squad is certainly not an easy out.

Looking at college basketball odds, the Wildcats are 4.5-point home favorites while the total resides at 167.5. The total is sky-high for a reason as Kentucky’s leaky defense hasn’t been up to par with its nation-leading offense.

What opportunity does that create in the player prop market for Saturday’s showdown? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Gonzaga vs. Kentucky on Saturday, February 10. 

Gonzaga vs Kentucky best odds

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Gonzaga vs Kentucky picks and predictions

The Kentucky Wildcats have made waves around the college basketball universe this season thanks to a prolific offense scoring 89.7 ppg, more than any other team. Five different players average double figures, although two of those (forward Tre Mitchell and guard D.J. Wagner) will likely remain sidelined this weekend due to injury. 

They’ll match up with a perennial WCC giant, the Gonzaga Bulldogs, in a marquee non-conference matchup this Saturday in Lexington. Mark Few’s squad also has a propensity for pouring in buckets by the dozen, ranking 12th nationally with 84.7 ppg. 

The Zags haven’t quite been their usual dominant self this season, standing in unfamiliar territory where they are in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament if they don’t finish the season strong. Saturday’s showdown with a tough Kentucky team will be quite the test. 

Calipari’s squad has a notable weakness on defense, where its adjusted efficiency ranking of 102nd is the worst of any top team around the country by a wide margin. This is a team comprised of offensive players first, second, and third — so defense is often an afterthought. 

That’s come back to bite them in recent home games against Tennessee (92-103 loss) and Florida (91-94 loss). In fact, it hasn’t been bulletproof at Rupp Arena for a while, surrendering at least 77 points in all five games since conference play began. 

The Wildcats are a team made up of many talented guards. Antonio Reeves, Rob Dillingham, and Reed Sheppard combine for a whopping 47.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. Their guard-centeric ways are exacerbated when forward Tre Mitchell is out with injury, as is likely to be the case Saturday. He missed their last game with a back injury and was described by Calipari as likely to return “in a week or two” along with Wagner, making both doubtful for this weekend. 

Calipari’s squad has fully bought into its identity as a guard-oriented and offensive-driven team by playing at a lightning-quick pace. Kentucky ranks 11th in adjusted tempo (KenPom) while averaging 77.3 possessions per game, seventh-most nationally. 

Gonzaga won’t be afraid of an up-tempo battle as it ranks 61st in adjusted tempo and has regularly played an up-and-down style under Few. This team ranks 28th in adjusted offensive efficiency and has enough weapons to put up a good fight. 

The bookmakers expect a ton of points and it’s easy to see why. One of my favorite angles to take in a game like this is to target player prop Overs at a price that is much less inflated than the full game total, and that’s exactly what I’ll do here with my best bet. 

Few has been running a thin rotation this season and that’s especially true at the guard position. Creighton transfer Ryan Nembhard has handled a heavy workload, seeing at least 30 minutes of playing time in every game since December 15, and in 20 of 23 games overall. 

He’ll see a lot of minutes again on Saturday and be trusted with the ball in his hands plenty in a pace-up spot against a vulnerable Kentucky defense that has routinely been torched by opposing guards. 

Nembhard’s points + rebounds + assists prop is set at 21.5 and I’ll buy the Over in a beatiful game environment for the veteran guard who will be unfazed by the difficult atmosphere. 

My best bet: Ryan Nembhard Over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at DraftKings)

Gonzaga vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Ryan Nembhard Over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists 

Nolan Hickman Over 2.5 threes made 

+286 at DraftKings

This two-leg SGP is comprised of both Gonzaga player prop Overs to take advantage of the plus matchup and game environment. 

In addition to my best bet, I’ll add fellow Zags guard Nolan Hickman to can Over 2.5 3-pointers at +145 odds. That plus money is too good for me to pass up in a matchup like this despite the road atmosphere. 

Kentucky really lets opponents let it fly from downtown, ranking 351st in opponent 3-point attempts (27.3) and 338th in opponent 3-pointers (8.9) per game. Hickman is Gonzaga’s leading sniper with 2.1 made trey balls per game and had been red hot lately, canning at least three 3-pointers in six of his last seven games. The lone miss was against Saint Mary’s, a team that is as diametrically opposed to Kentucky stylistically as possible. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Gonzaga vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

There has been a little bit of line movement as of late Friday night. Kentucky opened -3.5 but quickly jumped to -4.5 at most spots, with some books moving as far as -5. The total opened at 167.5 and has moved to 168.5 at some shops, although the original price is still available at others. 

Be sure to track any future fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool to see where the market is moving and to grab the best price available before placing your wager. 

Kentucky has been a profitable team to back at 13-9 ATS while Gonzaga has been slightly unprofitable at 10-12 ATS. 

It’s hard for me to have faith with the Zags, considering they haven’t performed well when facing tough opponents. They’re 0-2 straight up as an underdog and have lost all five Quad 1 games that they’ve played. 

Is this a winnable road game against a Kentucky team with a terrible defense and missing two of its five best players? Of course, but it’s also a difficult road test and I’ll need to see the Zags play well against a good team. I could still only consider the underdog here but have enough reasons to stay away from the window. 

The Wildcats have been dead set on the Over for much of the year, sitting with an eye-popping 17-5 O/U record. The Zags have been much less prone to high-scoring games at 9-13 O/U. 

Kentucky has been remarkable on the offense end and suspect on the defensive end at Rupp Arena, going 11-2 O/U in 13 home games. 

Few’s teams play best when they can get out in transition and find easy buckets with their big men. They will likely have success doing just that as Mitchell’s potential absence looms large. He’s one of just two Kentucky players standing 6-foot-8 or above and playing at least 20 minutes per game, and Gonzaga’s talented frontcourt of Graham Ike and Anton Watson combines for 19.8 points and 14.9 rebounds per game.

I could only consider the Over here and would be surprised if the total goes much lower than the current price as everyone will probably be thinking the same thing. 

Gonzaga vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Kentucky is allowing 19.85 ppg to opposing lead guards across its last 13 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. Kentucky.

Gonzaga vs Kentucky game info

Gonzaga vs Kentucky key injuries

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