The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head to Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in NCAA basketball action on Saturday night. The Tar Heels entered this season as national championship favorites but have dropped four in a row and have been one of the worst teams in the country against the spread.
Despite those early season struggles, the Tar Heels enter this contest as big favorites with college basketball betting lines hitting the board with UNC at -13.5.
Here are my best free Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina college basketball picks and predictions for December 10.
Georgia Tech vs North Carolina best odds
Georgia Tech vs North Carolina picks and predictions
The Tar Heels have lost four games in a row but all of those defeats came against Quadrant 1 foes (including three ranked teams) and none of them took place at Dean Smith Center, which is one of the toughest road venues in college ball.
The Tar Heels are coming off an 80-72 defeat to Virginia Tech on Sunday. They went just 3-17 from long range and allowed the Hokies to shoot 51% from the floor in that contest but the biggest reason they lost was their minus-12 rebounding margin.
That was due to the absence of big man Armado Bacot, who is a Wooden Award candidate and leads the conference with 11.1 rebounds per game while adding 16.1 points per game on 54.5 FG%.
Bacot injured his shoulder in the first half of last week's loss to Indiana and while he missed Sunday's contest, he's trending in the right direction to play today, according to head coach Hubert Davis.
Although the Tar Heels have gone ice-cold from deep lately, they have proven perimeter shooters and should see positive regression against a Yellow Jackets team that allowed Georgia to shoot 53% from the floor earlier this week.
Georgia Tech was curb-stomped 88-65 when these teams clashed in Chapel Hill last season. We've also seen the Yellow Jackets get smashed by finely-tuned offenses this year losing by 16 points to Iowa and getting clobbered 84-60 by Marquette. That's bad news on the road against a Tar Heels team that still ranks 10th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency despite those recent shooting woes.
Bacot's inside presence is crucial for an offense that likes to space the floor with outside shooters and thrives on getting second chances when those shots aren't dropping. I would wait to bet this line until we see whether or not he warms up but if he looks good to go, I'll lay the points with the home side.
My best bet: North Carolina -13 (-110 at bet365)
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Georgia Tech vs North Carolina spread analysis
After returning four starters from the squad that made a surprise run to the national title game in the spring, the Tar Heels entered this season atop AP Top 25 poll. They have since fallen out of the rankings after a four-game slide and are just 1-7-1 ATS.
None of North Carolina's five victories have been impressive either, with an 80-64 home win against James Madison (ranked 72rd in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom) the best win on its resume.
Bacot might be their most valuable player but the Tar Heels have two other preseason All-ACC selections in Caleb Love (19 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.4 SPG) and RJ Davis (15.4 ppg and a team-high 3 apg). Meanwhile, transfer power forward Pete Nance (12.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg) has been the perfect replacement for March Madness hero Brady Manek as a stretch four.
Georgia Tech has won back-to-back contests and is fresh off a thrilling 79-77 home victory against Georgia. The Yellow Jackets turned the ball over just six times and did a good job of converting at the line while guard Miles Kelly scored 17 points in the second half including the game-winner with 24 seconds left.
Kelly leads the team with 13.4 ppg and is one of three players scoring in double digits for Georgia Tech. That's not nearly enough to lift a Yellow Jackets squad that ranks 143rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency despite limiting turnovers.
They are slightly better on the other end of the floor where they rank 102nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and hold opponents to 28.3% shooting from beyond the arc
Georgia Tech vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis
The Yellow Jackets are coming off a strong offensive showing in the second half against UGA but their offense has struggled for most of this season.
They were held to 65 points or less in defeats against Iowa, Marquette, and Utah, and they also struggled to score against mediocre small schools like Georgia Southern and Northern Illinois.
A few other factors which suggest that the Under might be the play is that both schools rarely turn the ball over (leading to fewer fast breaks for opponents), play at a below-average average, and have been ice-cold from deep.
UNC is just 312th in the country with a 3-point percentage of 29.2% and Georgia Tech is even worse at 28.9%.
That said, the Tar Heels should be much better from the perimeter given their track record. Love and Davis are hitting just 26.2% of their 3-pointers this season after converting at a 36.3% clip last year. If they rediscover their shooting touch, this North Carolina offense could take off.
Georgia Tech vs North Carolina betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Georgia Tech's last four road games while going 4-1 in North Carolina's previous five contests at home. Find more College basketball betting trends for Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina.
Georgia Tech vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, December 10, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
