The SEC is the “Thunderdome” of college hoops this season, and Tuesday has another big-time battle between ranked foes when the No. 3 Florida Gators visit the No. 22 Mississippi State Bulldogs.
The Gators and Bulldogs are no strangers to lighting the scoreboard on fire, and my Florida vs. Mississippi State predictions see that happening tonight.
Find out more in my college basketball picks for February 11.
Florida vs Mississippi State prediction
My best bet
Over 151.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Outside of a 44-point blip at Tennessee on February 1, the Florida Gators have filled up the net with scores of 90, 89, and 86 points in three of their last four outings.
That includes a solid 48% shooting performance during the victory at Auburn in which UF finished with five players scoring in double figures. While Florida is getting production from all over, it’s the team’s 3-point prowess that’s helping build those big scores.
The Gators attempted 33 triples for 39 points from deep in the win over the Tigers and average 27 attempts from beyond the arc on the season — generating almost 28 points per game from 3-point range.
Todd Golden’s team runs a frenetic pace and doesn’t hesitate to jack up shots early in the shot clock if the space is there. And there could be plenty of space against this MSU perimeter defense.
The Bulldogs are struggling to get a hand up on outside shooting, with foes picking up more than 26 points per game from distance — spiking to an average of 38 tallies from 3-pointers in Mississippi State’s last three games. Overall, MSU is watching opponents enjoy a 36% shooting clip from beyond the arc.
A deeper dive into the matchup at ShotQualityBets shows MSU’s defense struggling against “catch-and-shoot” and “off-the-dribble” 3-point creation, two metrics Florida ranks 87th and 48th in, respectively.
To combat that glaring weakness, the Bulldogs’ offense has to take and make efficient shots. Mississippi State can get inside the paint and shoots the bulk of its attempts at the rim. The Bulldogs don’t play as fast a pace as UF but much like the Gators, they will get attempts up early in the shot clock.
I do expect the UF defense to be a little flat in this contest, with this being the second straight road game in four days, while also suffering a touch of the dreaded “letdown spot” in Starkville. We’ve seen the Gators give up points in recent outings, including 51% shooting to visiting Vanderbilt last week.
Game projections for this SEC showdown range from 154 points to just shy of 157, which is plenty of headroom for the Over 151.5. Both teams have pumped out Over results in recent outings, with a collective 5-2-1 O/U count in their last four games.
Florida vs Mississippi State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 151.5
Walter Clayton Jr. 3+ threes
Josh Hubbard 20+ points
The Gators will fill it up from outside, while the Bulldogs will thrive at the rim. Projections all came in well above this total.
Clayton Jr. will have plenty of success from outside against a soft MSU perimeter defense.
Hubbard is projections for more than 22 points, and the Bulldogs will lean on their star to stay with UF.
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Florida vs Mississippi State odds
Florida vs Mississippi State live odds
Florida vs Mississippi State opening odds
- Spread: Florida -2.5 | Mississippi State +2.5
- Moneyline: Florida -145 | Mississippi State +120
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Florida vs Mississippi State betting trend to know
Florida has gone Over the total in eight of its last 13 away games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Mississippi State.
How to watch Florida vs Mississippi State
| Location | Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Florida vs Mississippi State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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