Florida State vs Purdue Picks and Predictions: Seminoles Bring Value as Big Road Underdogs

Despite facing an undefeated Purdue team on the road, Florida State is in a fantastic position to cover a lofty spread due to its shutdown offense and reliable defense. Check out our free college basketball betting picks for more.

Last Updated: Nov 30, 2021 9:04 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Matthew Cleveland Florida State College Basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Purdue Boilermakers will hope to stay undefeated when they host the Florida State Seminoles as part of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge on Tuesday. Purdue has already scored big wins over the Villanova Wildcats and North Carolina Tar Heels this season. 

Will the Boilermakers add yet another impressive victory to their resume? Keep reading our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Florida State vs. Purdue to find out. 

Florida State vs Purdue odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Purdue, which has made a huge statement to start the year, opened this game as an 11-point favorite. Now, the Boilermakers are favored by 11.5 on some books. The total opened at 144.5 but has since moved down to 142.5 on a few books. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Florida State vs Purdue predictions

Predictions made on 11/30/2021 at 1:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Florida State vs Purdue game info

Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Date: Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET

Florida State at Purdue betting preview


Florida State: RayQuan Evans G (Out), Tanor Ngom C (Out), Naheem McLeod C (Out).
Purdue: Trey Kaufman-Renn F (Out), Brian Waddell F (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Under is 5-2 in Florida State’s last seven games against teams with winning percentages of .600 or better. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida State vs. Purdue.

Florida State vs Purdue picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Florida State suffered an extremely bad loss to the Florida Gators on November 14, but the team has won four in a row since. One of those victories was a 23-point win over the Missouri Tigers two games ago, showing many of the characteristics of a normal Leonard Hamilton team in the process. Florida State shot a blistering 61.1 percent from the floor and held Missouri to under 40 percent shooting. The Seminoles did, however, come out and struggle in a win over Boston the next game. 

The Seminoles are still trying to figure out how to consistently show up and play their best, but they should be up for this massive game against arguably the best team in college basketball in Purdue. One thing that does look good for Florida State is that the team is 20-13 against the spread when playing as an underdog of 10 or more points under Hamilton. The reality is 11.5 is just a little too many points to give to a team that plays lockdown offense. Florida State is known for playing some low-scoring games, which makes it easy to cover as a big underdog. 

Florida State is also an impressive 81-62-2 against the spread when playing teams that outscore their opponents by at least 12.0 points per game under Hamilton. That means that the Seminoles tend to stick around against elite competition, which certainly describes this Purdue team. 

The Boilermakers have two absolute studs in Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey, and forward Trevion Williams can also be a load in the paint. Meanwhile, Sasha Stefanovic is one of the best shooters in the entire country. The only hitch is that the Seminoles are as well-coached as any opponent the Boilermakers will face this season, so it’s not likely that Florida State will blow many assignments in this one. That means that some of these Purdue players will still do their things, as that’s just how talented the group is. But Florida State won’t make it easy on any of them. 

Also, this could be a spot in which Matthew Cleveland and Anthony Polite come up big for Florida State. Cleveland - a high-level recruit - has played well early in the year, while Polite is a sniper who hasn’t quite found his range. He shot 43.6 percent from deep last year but is at just 31.8 percent in 2021. It’s only a matter of time before he starts to get back to the mean. 

Prediction: Florida State +11.5 (-110)

Purdue is currently second in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the team’s offense is the main reason the Boilermakers are considered by many to be one of the country’s true contenders to win it all this year. Matt Painter’s team does, however, have some balance to it, as Purdue is also 35th in the country in defensive efficiency. Recognizing that Florida State is 25th in defensive efficiency, it’s not outrageous to consider this a meeting between two very strong defensive teams.

Additionally, these two programs are also in the bottom half of college basketball in terms of pace of play. Neither is going to want to speed this one up too much, and the Seminoles could actually look to slow it down even more than usual to take Purdue out of its rhythm. 

It’s also worth mentioning that these teams met just two years ago and combined to score 123 points in a neutral-court game. Obviously, these two programs are extremely different at this point, but it does show that a low-scoring game isn’t impossible with these coaches. 

Prediction: Under 144.5 (-115)

The Under is 5-0 in Florida State’s last five games with the team coming off an against-the-spread loss, and it’s also 5-1 over the Seminoles' last six road games when coming off three home games in a row. Now, Florida State rolls into a meeting with Purdue, which just so happens to have one of the most explosive offenses in all of college basketball. 

Hamilton knows that his team is going to need to muck the game up a bit in order to have a chance to win. Ultimately, that might not end up being enough for the ‘Noles to keep this one close, but it should be enough for them to keep this game from turning into a shootout. Florida State is already a great defensive team, so Purdue will have to work hard for its shots. 

Pick: Under 144.5 (-115)

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