Florida State vs Florida Picks and Predictions: Deeper Seminoles Too Much For Gators

Florida State has won eight straight over rival Florida and looks for No. 9 today in Gainesville. The Seminoles are slight college basketball betting road favorites and with better defense and a deeper offense, we like them to emerge victorious again.

Last Updated: Nov 14, 2021 9:34 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Anthony Polite Florida State Seminoles college basketball
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The Florida State Seminoles have won eight straight games against the Florida Gators. Tonight, they’ll look for win No. 9 this afternoon as the Seminoles hop a bus over to Gainesville to clash with the Gators.

The Seminoles are usually known for their length and defense, but early results are showing they could be more this year. Florida State scored 105 points on 49.3 percent shooting in a 35-point win over Pennsylvania, and college basketball betting lines have the 'Noles as a 1.5-point road favorite over the Gators, who were a little underwhelming in a 74-61 win over Elon.

Check out our best free college basketball picks and predictions for Florida State vs. Florida, for Sunday, November 14, as we predict whether or not the Gators can finally defeat the Seminoles for the first time since 2013.

Florida State vs Florida odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

It was actually the home Gators opening as a 1.5-point favorite, but after seeing the Seminoles perform against UPenn, books have now flipped the line to have the visiting Florida State side sitting at -1.5 points.

The total has also shifted from 142.5 to 145, again likely due to the fact that Florida State’s offense looked incredible in its first game of the season, although there are some discrepancies between books, however: You'll find numbers anywhere from 144.5 to 145.5 — shop around! Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Florida State vs Florida predictions

Predictions made on 11/14/2021 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Florida State vs Florida game info

Location: Billy Donovan Court at Exactech Arena, Gainesville, FL
Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET

Florida State at Florida betting preview


Florida State: Tanor Ngom C (Questionable).
Florida: Keyontae Johnson G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the Seminoles' last four Sunday games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida State vs. Florida.

Florida State vs Florida picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

The Florida State Seminoles looked unstoppable against Penn in their first game of the season. Florida State lost Scottie Barnes, M.J. Walker, Balsa Koprivica, and Raiquan Gray, but it just replaced that departed talent — and more — as head coach Leonard Hamilton always seems to do.

Florida State gets better and better every year, especially when you think it’s impossible to get better when losing a player like Barnes, who went fourth overall in the NBA Draft and is now turning into a star for Toronto.

Keying Florida State's talent reload are some premier freshmen that could get a chance to start for this team — Jaloen Warley and Matthew Cleveland. The two each dropped 15 points in their Seminoles debuts, with Cleveland scoring on just nine shots (in 20 minutes) while adding five rebounds. Those freshmen will be great complements for returning players Anthony Polie and Malik Osborne, who are getting their chance to shine as redshirt seniors.

On the other hand, Florida also added a little talent in the offseason, but it was needed to after losing four key players via professional basketball and the transfer portal. Last year, Florida also lost Keyontae Johnson to a heart/chest ailment last season and he has yet to return.

The big transfer get for Florida was Myreon Jones from Penn State, who averaged 15.3 points last season in the Big Ten. Shockingly, Florida didn’t show much depth in their win against Elon, as the bench scored just 10 points between four players. The Gators are going to be a seven-man rotation for the most part, which will make it tough to stay out of trouble against an aggressive Florida State team.

Therefore, I like Florida State on the road in this matchup.

Prediction: Florida State -1.5 (-110)

Right now, Florida only has four players than seem comfortable shooting the basketball. Transfer guard Brandon McKissic scored 17.2 points last year for UMKC  in the Summit League but only took five shots in 28 minutes against Elon. Until he’s comfortable, Florida’s offense won’t be able to take that next step. Defensively, however, the Gators will be just fine. Rebounding is always an issue against Florida State but overall, the Gators have some big bodies that can go up and make plays on the defensive end.

Florida State has played loose and has played basically every single player off the bench. Once things get a bit tighter, it won’t be like that for the 'Noles. We expect the Gators to stick around in this game a little bit and provide enough defense to keep this game under the total.

Prediction: Under 145.5 (-110)

In our preview for Florida State and Penn, we were completely off on the total in that game: Florida State scored over 100 points and allowed 70 — we didn’t expect either.

Now, we're not advocating to go and overreact to one game: FSU got to the line 34 times against Penn and Florida has enough bigger bodies to defend better and not foul as much.

That's why we're going back to the Under as our best bet. Rivalries are always tight, high-level defense will be showcased, and Florida just doesn’t have much offensive depth right now.

Pick: Florida State -1.5 (-110)

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