Creighton vs Providence Big East Tournament Picks and Predictions: Friars Can't Cover Friday

The Friars look like an elite team on paper, but their analytics don't hold up as well, and they've had some good luck in close games this season. Our Creighton vs. Providence picks see that coming to end, however, in the Big East Tournament semifinal.

Last Updated: Mar 11, 2022 8:48 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Ryan Hawkins Creighton Bluejays Big East Tournament
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Creighton Bluejays will take on the Providence Friars in the first game of a Big East doubleheader tonight at Madison Square Garden. The winner of this game will play in the Big East Finals. 

Providence pulled another close win against Butler last night, continuing to find ways to win close games. The Friars close out games well — that’s a plus. 

Meanwhile, last night, Creighton handled Marquette for most of the game. The Bluejays lost Ryan Nembhard for the year but still look like a team that can make a run at the Big East.

Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Creighton vs. Providence on Friday, March 11. 

Creighton vs Providence odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Providence opened as a 3.5-point favorite against Creighton, however, some books have adjusted to as low as 2.5 for Providence. Meanwhile, the total has increased from 131 to 131.5 across the board. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Creighton vs Providence predictions

Predictions made on 3/11/2022 at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Creighton vs Providence game info

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. ET

Creighton at Providence betting preview


Creighton: Ryan Nembhard G (Out), Devin Davis G (Out), Shereef Mitchell G (Out).
Providence: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Bluejays are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Creighton vs. Providence.

Creighton vs Providence picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Creighton has been impressive as of late. The Bluejays have won eight of their last 10 games and continue to prove just how good of a team they are, even without Ryan Nembhard. 

Creighton will turn the ball over at a high rate at times, losing the rock 20.8% of the time, however, Providence isn’t a big threat to earn turnovers in the first place. 

The Bluejays are knocking down just 31.2% from three but 53.7% from inside the arc. Creighton also won’t get to the foul line at a high rate, but should be able to bring down a solid amount of offensive rebounds against Providence. 

The Friars have held opponents to a 46.3% effective field goal percentage. Teams are currently hitting just 30.9% from three and 46.2% from inside the arc. Plus, Providence has been able to limit foul shooting from its opponents this season, which has been a plus. 

However, scoring against Creighton is never easy. Providence gets a whole lot of points from the foul line, but Creighton is one of the few teams in the league that can really limit free throws. To boot, opponents are also shooting just 43.6% against Creighton this season from inside the arc. 

The Friars shoot 35.1% from three and 49.9% from inside the arc. Providence does everything well but nothing at an elite level outside of getting to the line. It’s going to be hard to score inside against Creighton, but Providence should be able to get some offensive rebounds, as the Friars earn 30.4% of those on the year. 

Creighton’s defense will be a factor in tonight’s game. Marquette struggled to get in a rhythm and the same could happen to Providence. Creighton already lost to Providence by 21 in February, but adjustments will be made, which will help keep Creighton much closer in this one.

Prediction: Creighton +3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

If the Creighton Bluejays want a chance at winning this game, the effort on the defensive end is going to need to be there tonight. Creighton has held opponents to a 45.4% effective field goal percentage and rarely allows easy shots inside the paint. 

Providence usually runs up the score at the foul line, but Creighton defends and doesn’t foul, which is one of the reasons the Bluejays are in the semifinals. 

Meanwhile, Providence has also held opponents to a 46.3% effective field goal percentage and won’t allow many easy looks. Creighton should struggle from deep, knowing Providence has held opponents to 30.9% from three this season.

Grab the Under.

Prediction: Under 131.5 (-110)

Best bet

At some point, Providence’s luck is going to run out. I know it has been great at closing games out and that deserves some recognition. But ultimately, Providence, analytically, is not an elite team despite a 25-4 record. 

The Friars get to the line at a very high rate throughout the season and hit 72.8% there. Against Creighton, it’s unlikely that Providence will get to the foul line at a rapid pace, and that should affect how Providence plays the rest of this game. 

I’ll be sticking with Creighton, knowing that the Bluejays play the better defense. Creighton should still have success inside the arc, as the Bluejays are shooting 53.7% on the season. 

Pick: Creighton +3.5 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Creighton vs. Providence picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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