Two ACC teams that surprisingly find themselves on the bubble in mid-February will square off on Saturday afternoon in Chapel Hill as the Clemson Tigers take on the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Clemson is an impressive 10-3 in ACC play, but has lost two consecutive games and sits at 18-6 overall. The Tigers are ranked 70th in the NET rankings and are currently an 11-seed in ESPN bracketology. UNC was once the top-ranked team in the nation, but now sits at 15-9 overall and 7-6 in the ACC after three consecutive losses. The Tar Heels are currently in the “Last Four In” section of ESPN bracketology.
Which struggling bubble team will get a much-needed conference win? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Clemson vs. North Carolina on Saturday, February 11 to find out.
Clemson vs North Carolina best odds
Clemson vs North Carolina picks and predictions
Clemson had a very mediocre non-conference schedule that included losses to South Carolina, Iowa, and Loyola Chicago. Their best non-conference win was at home in double overtime to Penn State. However, things turned around for the Tigers once ACC play started.
They won their first seven conference games and found themselves ranked in the Top 20 teams in the country. Since then, the Tigers have lost three of six and two consecutively. This will be their toughest road game thus far in terms of NET rankings.
North Carolina is ranked 43 in the NET rankings, but has been collapsing as of late. The Tar Heels lost three straight ACC games, including a home game to Pitt. UNC had a four-game losing streak earlier this year, however, none of those were at home. Pitt is their only home loss of the season.
One big separator in this matchup besides home-court advantage will be shot-making. Clemson is extremely tough on the defensive end. It only allows opponents to shoot 39.7% from the floor, which ranks 19th in the nation. The Tigers also only allow 15.3 2-point baskets per game, which ranks 36th.
On the other end, the Tar Heels rely heavily on two-point field goals to get their offense going. UNC only makes 6.6 3-pointers per game, which ranks 272nd in the country. It also only shoots 44.1% from the floor, so the points will be hard to come by against this tenacious Clemson defense.
Ultimately, it will be very difficult for Clemson to pull off the upset in this tough road environment. However, its defense will keep this game close and they can hold their own on the defensive boards. This spread is way too high for two evenly-matched teams. Give me the Tigers to cover.
My best bet: Clemson +7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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Clemson vs North Carolina spread analysis
On the offensive end for Clemson, they rely heavily on great shooting from both the 3-point line and free-throw line. The Tigers shoot 36.4% from downtown and 80.3% from the charity stripe. Only two teams in the country have a better free-throw percentage.
The Tar Heels allow 6.9 made threes and 16.1 free-throw attempts per contest. These are not terrible numbers, but they also aren’t ranked in the Top 100 in either category. If the Tar Heels get in any sort of foul trouble, Clemson will make them pay dearly.
The underdog is 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two programs. Clemson is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600, while UNC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
These trends will continue Saturday afternoon with Clemson going on the road and covering. It’s hard for me to go moneyline on the road against a UNC team with only one home loss, but it will certainly be a close game down the stretch.
Clemson vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis
North Carolina games average 150.1 total points and Clemson games average 140.9 total points per contest. This total is currently sitting in between at 147.5. However, North Carolina only scored 64 points against Pitt and 57 points against Duke recently. Clemson can play a similar style to keep the game low-scoring.
The Under is 7-1 in the last eight UNC games overall. It‘s also 5-1 in the Tar Heels’ last six games against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-1 in their last five games following an ATS loss.
UNC will probably be able to find their scoring a little better at home, but Clemson will still make it difficult. Offensively, the Tigers will be able to get some good looks, but unless they light it up from deep, they will also struggle to reach anywhere near 80. I like the Under here.
Clemson vs North Carolina betting trend to know
The Tigers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Clemson vs. North Carolina.
Clemson vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, February 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
