The No. 3-seeded Clemson Tigers take on the No. 6-seeded NC State Wolfpack in the third round of the ACC Tournament on Thursday night.
The Tigers were picked to finish 11th in the ACC but have surpassed expectations and will look to secure a ticket to March Madness with a strong showing in the conference tourney.
College basketball odds opened with the Wolfpack as 2-point chalk but the line has shifted and this game is now a pick'em. Here are my best college basketball betting picks for Clemson vs. NC State on March 9.
Clemson vs NC State best odds
Clemson vs NC State picks and predictions
What will it take for the Clemson Tigers to get a bit of respect from oddsmakers and the selection committee? Sure, the Tigers have lost five of their last nine games but they still finished with a 14-6 record in conference play, two games above the NC State Wolfpack in the ACC standings.
Not to mention they annihilated the Wolfpack by 25 points when they faced them on the road just two weeks ago. Clemson shot a sizzling 60% from the floor in that contest while NC State shot just 42% and that disparity in shooting has existed between these squads all season.
The Tigers were second in the ACC with a field goal percentage of 47.2% against conference foes while ranking first in opponent field goal percentage (40.2%). The Wolfpack were in the bottom half of the conference in both categories, posting a 43.5 FG% while allowing opponents to shoot 45.2% from the field.
Clemson has also been the better team on the glass where it has a +2.7 rebounding margin in conference play, while the Wolfpack are at +0.2.
The one area where the Wolfpack have a clear advantage is when it comes to turnover differential. But while NC State does an excellent job of forcing turnovers, Clemson has a pair of experienced ball handlers and is a respectable 49th in the country in turnover rate.
Although the Wolfpack are 37th in the NET rankings they've gone just 1-6 against Quadrant 1 opponents while the Tigers are 61st but are 3-3 vs. Quad 1 foes. Give me the Tigers on the moneyline.
My best bet: Clemson moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)
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Clemson vs NC State spread analysis
The Tigers began conference play with seven straight victories and while they went through a messy stretch after that, they've looked good over the last couple of weeks.
They are 3-1 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games, with their lone defeat coming on the road against No. 13 Virginia. All three of those victories during that span came by at least 18 points and in their most recent contest, they destroyed Notre Dame 87-64.
The Wolfpack are also coming off a dominant victory after beating the Hokies 97-77 last night. NC State had a 27-point lead at the half and shot 62% from the floor in that contest. That win snapped a two-game skid for NC State who lost to Duke immediately after getting clobbered by Clemson on February 25.
NC State doesn't shoot the ball particularly well but they rarely turn the ball over (third in the country in turnover rate) and are very efficient at mid-range. The Wolfpack do an excellent job of defending outside shooters but Clemson has also been efficient inside the arc, where they rank 43rd in the country at 54% shooting.
The Wolfpack are led by guards Terquavion Smith (17.3 points and 4.4 assists per game) and Jarkel Joiner (17.3 ppg, 3.5 apg). Center D.J. Burns is a 275-pound load in the post and averages 13.1 ppg on 56.8% shooting in just 23.2 minutes per game.
The Tigers have four double-digit scorers led by All-ACC forward Hunter Tyson (15.7 points and 9.5 rebounds per game on 49/41/84 shooting splits). Big man P.J. Hall adds 15.5 ppg on 54% shooting while guard Chase Hunter leads Clemson with 4.5 assists per game and chips in with 14.0 ppg.
Clemson vs NC State Over/Under analysis
When these teams previously met up, they combined for 167 points easily surpassing the total of 151.5 and we're seeing a lower total of 148 today.
The Wolfpack do an excellent job of blocking shots and coming away with steals on defense but they also play at a fast tempo and have been vulnerable in areas where Clemson excels offensively.
They are 267th in the country in defending off-ball screens according to ShotQualityBets while the Tigers are 33rd in the country in offensive efficiency in that category. The Wolfpack are also just 308th at defending post-up situations and the Tigers post up at the 16th highest frequency in the country.
This is a Wolfpack squad that has allowed more than 70 points in four straight games and they'll need to push the pace in transition and score plenty of points if they want to get the win here.
They are certainly capable of doing that as we saw last night and they rank 21st in the country with 78.9 ppg against Div 1 foes.
The Tigers are also able to fill up the hoop. They've scored at least 87 points in three of their last four games with only Virginia's stifling defense keeping them in check during that span.
Clemson vs NC State betting trend to know
The Tigers are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. winning teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Clemson vs. NC State.
Clemson vs NC State game info
| Conference: | ACC Quarterfinals |
| Location: | Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC |
| Date: | Thursday, March 9, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
