Arizona vs USC Picks and Predictions: Trojans Defend Home Turf, Stay in Title Chase

The Wildcats are trying to clinch the Pac-12 regular-season crown, but the Trojans are fighting to stay in that race and will bring the battle at home. Find out why we're taking the points in our Arizona vs. USC picks.

Last Updated: Mar 1, 2022 9:15 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Isaiah Mobley USC Trojans college basketball
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The USC Trojans will be looking to win their seventh game in a row when they host an Arizona Wildcats team that is coming off an upset loss against the Colorado Buffaloes. If Arizona wins this game, the team will clinch the Pac-12 regular-season title, so there’s a lot on the line in this massive conference game. 

Will the Trojans spoil the party while also keeping their title hopes alive? You’ll want to keep reading our Arizona vs. USC college basketball picks and predictions to find out. 

Arizona vs USC odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

While USC was a 4.5-point underdog when this game opened, the Trojans are now getting 5 in some places. As for the total, the number opened at 150.5 and has started to make its way down to 150 on most books. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Arizona vs USC predictions

Predictions made on 3/1/2022 at 1:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Arizona vs USC game info

Location: Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Tuesday, March 1, 2022
Tip-off: 11:00 p.m. ET

Arizona at USC betting preview


Arizona: No injuries to report. 
USC: Isaiah White G (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

USC is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 home games against teams with winning road records.  Find more NCAA betting trends for Arizona vs. USC.

Arizona vs USC picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

When USC and Arizona met in Tucson on February 5, the Trojans shot just 34.3% from the floor. Considering Andy Enfield’s team is 36th in the nation in adjusted offensive rating (all efficiency stats from, you shouldn’t expect this group to play that poorly on offense again.

Drew Peterson, who is one of USC’s more reliable shooters, should definitely be better in front of the home fans in this one. Peterson went 1-for-13 from the floor and 0-for-6 from deep against Arizona last game, but he shoots 47.6% from the field and 43.6% from three. If he can play like his usual self, USC should be able to hang around here. 

While the Wildcats normally have a massive advantage on the inside, that isn’t the case in meetings with the Trojans. USC center Isaiah Mobley is one of the best bigs in the entire country, and he’s going to show up in what could be the last home game of his career. Look for him to battle with Christian Koloko on the defensive end, while also pulling him away from the basket on offense. Mobley is a very good 3-point shooter for a big man, and he’s also good at finding his teammates for easy buckets 

The Trojans are just going to need to be good about getting out on the Wildcats at the 3-point line. Kerr Kriisa and Bennedict Mathurin make up one of the best backcourts in the Pac-12, and both of them are capable of getting hot from deep. USC has to do what it can to force them into bad mid-range shots by closing out hard on the perimeter.

Kriisa, who was 3-for-5 from deep in the last meeting between these two, likely won’t feel as comfortable shooting in what should be a wild road environment. He’s the type of guy that feeds off his home fans. For what it’s worth, USC is 47th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, so the team shouldn’t turn in a dud on that end in a game as big as this one. 

The Trojans will just need somebody in the backcourt to step up and make some big plays. Perhaps it will be Boogie Ellis, who had just eight points the last time these teams met. Ellis had 21 against Washington State two games ago, so he’s clearly capable of getting hot. 

Prediction: USC +5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

These teams combined to score only 135 points when they met in early February, and they’d need to score 151 in order for the Over to hit in this one. That just doesn’t seem likely in a game between two sides that will be focused on the defensive end, and this also happens to be a very important game.

That means that both of these units will be well-prepared, and there will be some adrenaline in those legs when these players get out there. That type of energy usually shows up on the defensive end, and it can also occasionally lead to some missed jumpers. 

It’s also worth noting that the Under is 17-6 when USC is trying to avenge a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. The average total points scored in those games was 133.2 points per game. The Under is also 8-2 in the games USC has played against teams that shoot at least 21.0 threes per game this season. 

Prediction: Under 150.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Wildcats might be playing to clinch the Pac-12 regular-season title, but the Trojans are fighting to keep themselves alive in that race — and they have home-court advantage.

Look for USC to be the more fired-up team when these two get out there, and the Trojans should feed off the energy that their crowd provides them. USC doesn’t always have a huge turnout in home games, but the fans should show up for them in a game as big as this one. 

Since the start of last season, USC is 9-1 against the spread when playing teams with winning percentages of 80.0% or better. The Trojans are also 12-3 against the spread when facing teams that outscore their opponents by 12.0 or more points per game over the last three seasons. With that in mind, USC is no stranger to stepping things up in games against elite competition, and the Trojans shouldn’t be caught off guard here. 

Pick: USC +5 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Arizona vs. USC picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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