Arizona vs Arizona State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Frankie Finds Rhythm From Deep

Frankie Collins has hit multiple threes in six of his last seven home games and now gets a favorable matchup against one of the worst 3-point defenses in the nation. Expect him to let it fly, as our NCAAB betting picks break down below.

Feb 28, 2024 • 11:24 ET • 4 min read
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Frankie Collins Arizona State Sun Devils Pac-12 college basketball
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The Arizona State Sun Devils look for revenge as they host the rival Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats picked up a massive 45-point victory in Tucson earlier this month and Bobby Hurley’s squad will look to even the score a bit back in Tempe. 

The Sun Devils will also seek to be a giant slayer for the second straight game after toppling the other top team in the conference, Washington State, in a 73-61 home victory over the weekend. 

The bookmakers think that they’re a longshot to do that — looking at college basketball odds, the Wildcats are 11.5-point favorites with the total sitting at 159.

Both defenses have known weaknesses in particular areas and that opens up some value in the player prop betting market. Find out where I'm looking with my best bet and stay tuned for my college basketball picks for Arizona vs. Arizona State on Wednesday, February 28. 

Arizona vs Arizona State best odds

Arizona vs Arizona State picks and predictions

The last time these two teams met on February 17, the Arizona Wildcats picked up a blowout 105-60 victory at McKale Center that marked the largest margin of victory in the history of this rivalry.

While 45 points is a lot, a lopsided result wasn’t particularly shocking considering the gulf between these two programs — Arizona is currently projected as a No. 1 seed while the Arizona State Sun Devils are struggling to stay at .500 and are all but assured to miss the NCAA Tournament. 

There’s a wide gap between these two teams according to the metrics as well. The Wildcats check in at fourth overall in KenPom (seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency, 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency) while the Sun Devils rank 116th (207th on offense, 46th on defense). 

The Wildcats surprisingly fell 74-77 at home against Washington State on Thursday before turning around and responding with an easy 91-75 win over Washington. Interestingly enough, the Sun Devils had inverse results, falling 82-84 to Washington on Thursday before notching a huge 73-61 upset win over Washington State. 

The win over the Cougars marked Arizona State’s first win over a Top-30 team in the NET rankings and just its second Quad-1 victory at the time, although the Cougars have since moved to 36th in the rankings and qualifying as a Quad-2 victory.

Regardless, it was undeniably an impressive win. Bobby Hurley will look to keep the momentum going at Desert Financial Arena, where the Sun Devils are 10-4 this season. It’s well known the Wildcats have been vulnerable on the road with a 5-3 record. 

Arizona ranks 228th in 3-point defense (34.1%), 303rd in 3-point attempts allowed per game (24.4), and 299th in 3-pointers allowed per game (8.3). It’s a deficiency for a team with few weaknesses and it's come back to bite them already a handful of times this season. It’s a known issue that's not yet been solved, and if not now, when? 

That makes this a good matchup for the Wildcats as Arizona State is a dreadful shooting team (31% from downtown, 318th nationally). One player who is rarely hesitant to let it fly from deep is Frankie Collins, who hucks 4.5 three-pointers per game. 

He let it fly for seven attempts in the first matchup while being guarded by the larger Pelle Larsson, who kept Collins contained to the perimeter. While he made just one of those attempts in that matchup, I like his chances of canning at least one more this go around at home where he’s shooting 35.4% from deep compared to 18.6% on the road. 

If the sample size is scaring you off, consider that he shot 39.5% from behind the arc at home last season but just 27.8% on the road. He’s made at least two threes in nine of his 14 home games and six of his last seven. 

The possessions should be plentiful in this game between the Sun Devils, who play at a Top-75 pace, and the Wildcats, who are Top 10 in pace. Collins will have every opportunity to cash this Over. 

My best bet: Frankie Collins Over 1.5 made three (+100 at DraftKings)

Arizona vs Arizona State same-game parlay

Frankie Collins Over 1.5 made threes

Oumar Ballo Over 14.5 points

Arizona State is an undersized team that has had issues protecting the paint all season, which makes for trouble going against this big and athletic Arizona team. I’m therefore going to target Wildcats big man Oumar Ballo’s points prop, which is set at 14.5.

The center from Mali lives in the paint, attempting 80.8% of shots at the rim (Hoop-Math) while converting them at a 67.7% rate. He should get plenty of looks down low against an Arizona State defense that ranks 250th in the percentage of shots allowed at the rim (40.3%) and 246th in field goal percentage allowed on those looks (59.2%).  

The Sun Devils’ lone true big man is Shawn Phillips, a 7-footer who should be overmatched. The next-tallest rotation player is Alonzo Gaffney, a 6-foot-9, 198-pound twig who shouldn’t offer up much resistance against a beast like Ballo. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Arizona vs Arizona State spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened with the Wildcats as 12.5-point favorites but has since come in a bit. Currently, Arizona is -11.5 at most books while -12 is still showing at others. Be sure to track any further changes using our college basketball line movement tool.  

Tommy Lloyd’s side has been a profitable one for bettors to back this season at 17-9-1 ATS. Despite the known struggles away from home, the Wildcats are still 5-3 ATS in away games. 

Arizona State is just 13-15 ATS overall. The Sun Devils have been a Jekyll and Hyde team, capable of notching a 12-point win over the then conference-leading Cougars but culpable for a 15-point home loss to Cal and a 9-point home loss to Stanford. 

The Sun Devils have been profitable at home with an 8-6 ATS record. Given this is a revenge spot, I’d be inclined to take the points with Arizona State. The fact this is a brutal matchup makes this a difficult bet to make, but the situational spot does favor them. This will also be the Sun Devils’ Senior Night and the last home game. 

The win over the Cougars was Hurley’s 12th over a ranked team during his tenure in Tempe. His teams are just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in the last 10 matchups against Arizona, although the Sun Devils did notch a thrilling 89-88 win in Tucson last season. 

If playing the total, I’d be inclined to look at the Under. Arizona State has been miserably inefficient shooting the ball and doesn’t appear well-equipped to expose Arizona’s defensive weakness.

On the slip side, Arizona’s best bet offensively is to continually attack the post, which should be an efficient approach but not one that necessarily results in another 100-point showing against the Sun Devils. After all, this is still a Top-50 defense, per KenPom. 

Arizona vs Arizona State betting trend to know

Frankie Collins has hit at least two 3-pointers in six of his last seven home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Arizona State.

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Arizona vs Arizona State game info

Location: Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
Date: Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: Pac-12 Network

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