Alabama vs Mississippi Odds, Picks and Predictions: Buckets Upon Buckets Expected in University

The Crimson Tide possess the most electric offense in the nation, but they can't seem to put the same effort on the other side of the ball. Our college basketball picks expect points tonight, and lots of them.

Feb 28, 2024 • 13:52 ET • 4 min read
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Alabama Crimson Tide NCAAB
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The best offense in college basketball will be on display tonight as the Alabama Crimson Tide visit the Mississippi Rebels as road favorites according to college basketball odds.

Alabama has won seven of its last nine, but head coach Nate Oats has concerns about his team’s defense, which hasn’t lived up to its outstanding scoring numbers. Mississippi has dropped five of six and now finds itself squarely on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament.

Nobody scores like the Crimson Tide, and the Rebels will be hard pressed to slow them down tonight. I’ll talk about what that means for bettors in my free college basketball picks for Alabama vs. Mississippi on February 28.

Alabama vs Mississippi best odds

Alabama vs Mississippi picks and predictions

The Alabama Crimson Tide win games with a very simple game plan: outscore opponents at all costs. Not only does Alabama sport the highest scoring offense in the country (91.1 points per game), but KenPom rates the Crimson Tide as having the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation as well. 

When you throw in the fact this is a high-tempo team, it’s hard for anyone to even slow down this offensive unit. Alabama shoots 48.3% from the field and 37.9% from 3-point range, and has scored at least 95 points in six of its last eight games.

The only issue for the Tide is they don’t tend to do much to stop their opponents, either. Four of their last five opponents have scored at least 90 points themselves, and Alabama allows 78.9 ppg overall — one of the worst marks in college basketball. 

Mississippi’s numbers aren’t nearly as dramatic, but they follow a similar trend. The Rebels have a solid offense — their 75.1 ppg average is somewhat misleading due to their slower pace of play — but they also allow opponents to score an average of 72.2 points. Four of Mississippi’s last seven games have been played to totals of 150 points or more. 

That’s happened without the Rebels running into anyone who can play offense like Alabama. The Crimson Tide have hit the Over in each of their last six games, with all of those totals set at 157.5 or higher. Two of these games have ended with totals above 200 points, including their last outing — a 117-95 loss to Kentucky. 

As Oats puts it, it’s clear what kind of basketball Alabama plays.

We have had question marks about our defense all year, Those question marks are completely erased, and everyone knows that we don’t really guard at this point.

Tonight, we have the best offense in college basketball facing off against another team that can score. Both schools have trouble playing defense, and one of them plays at a remarkably fast pace. This is a game that will produce points early and often.

The only question is how many points we’ll end up seeing. Tonight’s total is set at 166.5 points, a number that would be remarkably high in most situations. But when we look at how these two teams play, and in particular how Alabama is running up and down the court, these teams should have little trouble getting above that number.

My best bet: Over 166.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Alabama vs Mississippi same-game parlay

Over 166.5

Alabama -5

Mark Sears Over 20.5 points

I’m expecting explosive scoring tonight, and that should favor the Crimson Tide. While this may be a shootout, Alabama is the best team in the country at playing this way, and Mississippi isn’t equipped to stop them. That’s why I’m taking the Tide to cover tonight as part of my same-game parlay.

To round out my SGP, let’s also look at Alabama’s leading scoring to have a big night. Mark Sears is averaging 20.4 ppg and has put up at least 21 points in eight of his last ten games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Alabama vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis

The Crimson Tide opened tonight’s game as a six-point favorite. That number has come down a bit, with Alabama -5.0 or -5.5 now the spread at most books. You can get -102 on Alabama at -5.5, or -108 on the Tide if you give just five points. 

Alabama has been good for bettors this year, putting up a 15-11-1 record against the spread. Mississippi has been less successful, going just 13-14 ATS on the season.

The total tonight opened at 167 points flat. That number has moved only slightly, with 166.5 being the consensus Over/Under as of noon on Wednesday. Some books are offering a slight discount on the Over, which can be found at -105 at a few sites.

Alabama has consistently scored more points than expected, with the Over putting up an impressive 20-7 record on the year when the Crimson Tide play. The Rebels have been closer to the total, with the Over holding a 14-13 edge in their games. 

Yes, this total is extremely high. But Alabama has hit the Over in six straight games, and in three of them, the total was even higher. In its last two games, books set the Over/Under at 173 and 176: The Crimson Tide and their opponents easily surpassed that in both cases, with totals of 191 and 212 in those contests.

Alabama vs Mississippi betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in Alabama’s last six games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Mississippi.

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Alabama vs Mississippi game info

Location: The Sandy and John Black Pavillion, University, MS
Date: Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

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