At some point, one could argue the Toronto Raptors have already succeeded in their tank job, now with the sixth-worst record in the NBA and effectively locked into nothing higher than the seventh-worst record. But the good news for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight is Toronto is past a tank job. The Raptors are just bad.
They are at their absolute worst on offense, the worst in the league in March and it's no surprise they're the underdogs yet again according to NBA odds.
I'll trust that incompetence in my free NBA picks for the 76ers vs Raptors on Sunday, March 31.
76ers vs Raptors predictions
My best bet: Raptors team total Under 102.5 (-115 at PointsBet)
In 14 games in March, the Toronto Raptors have fallen short of their team total in 11 regulations. Why get away from what works? Actually, more poignantly, why get away from what clearly is not working?
The Raptors have the league’s worst offensive rating in March, only a bit worse than the Pistons but points worse than the other 28 teams. Their greatest weakness is they've shot 31.1% from deep this month, sadly not even the worst in the NBA. Detroit and Charlotte are both somehow worse than that.
Toronto might be able to survive shooting that badly if it wasn't so intent on shooting so often from deep, taking 39.7% of its field goals from beyond the arc. Yes, that is modern basketball, but when you are missing seven out of 10 attempts, should you really be this committed to modern basketball?
The Philadelphia 76ers will encourage that foolhardy approach. Their defensive rating throughout March has been about average, No. 17 in the NBA. It would be much higher if opponents were not shooting well from deep.
Philadelphia has forced 3-pointers on 42.2% of opposing field goal attempts in March, the eighth-highest rate in the NBA. While 37.1% of those have been makes, that will not be the case tonight in Toronto.
The Raptors have shot better than 37% from deep exactly twice this month. In both those games, they still fell short of their team total in regulation, and they've shot worse than 30% in six games.
That weakness fits perfectly into Philadelphia’s greatest defensive weakness. At that point, the 76ers defense should be stout, not that it really needs to be against Toronto.
76ers vs Raptors same-game parlay
Raptors team total Under 102.5
Kelly Olynyk Over 6.5 assists
Gradey Dick Over 13.5 points
Adding these pair of Raptors players props with Over tilts to the Toronto team total Under creates an aggressive payout on this same-game parlay, and both are inspired by Immanuel Quickley’s absence. Quickley has averaged 17.5 points and 9.6 assists in eight games this month, taking 15.5 shots per game.
Kelly Olynyk is the kind of veteran that takes up an underrated amount of that playmaking role, his assists ticking up to 6.2 in six games without Quickley this month compared to just 4.8 in eight games with him.
The exact same logic applies to Gradey Dick, always glad to take more shots. He has averaged 12.8 shots and 15.2 points in six games without Quickley this month compared to 10.0 and 9.0 in eight games with him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
76ers vs Raptors odds and trends
76ers vs Raptors opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia -11 | Toronto +11
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -574 | Toronto +455
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5
76ers vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread fell Sunday midday, dropping from its opening number of -11 all the way to -9.5 while you were enjoying Easter brunch. That may tie to RJ Barrett’s expected return to the lineup, but he should not be worth 1.5 points
- The total fell along with the spread, dropping from 218.5 to 216 in that same stretch.
- The Raptors have beaten the spread just three times this month, two of which were those shocking moments in which Toronto went over its team total.
76ers vs Raptors betting trend to know
Philadelphia stumbled to a 7-16-1 against the spread record in the seven weeks immediately following Joel Embiid’s injury, and has since rebounded to go 6-2 ATS in the last two weeks. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Raptors.
76ers vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, March 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-PHI, TSN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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