Two likely participants in the Eastern Conference's play-in tournament will square off on Saturday, with the hot Washington Wizards traveling to face the unraveling Indiana Pacers.
Washington has won 12 of their last 15 games to emerge as a real threat to their fellow play-in participants, while Indiana seemingly can't wait to hit the offseason and start fresh with a new coaching staff.
Here are our best free NBA betting picks and predictions for Wizards vs. Pacers on May 8 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Wizards vs Pacers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe Wizards opened as 3.5-point favorites overnight at PointsBet USA and haven't budged off that line, still there at 4:30 p.m. ET today. "Eighty-one percent of bets and 80 percent of money on Washington," PointsBet USA's Wyatt Yearout said of point-spread action. The total is up to 249 from a 247.5 opener, with 56 percent of bets on the Under and 67 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWizards at Pacers betting preview
Injuries
Wizards: Rui Hachimura PF (Out), Deni Avdija SF (Out), Thomas Bryant C (Out).
Pacers: Jakarr Sampson PF (Questionable), Malcolm Brogdon SG (Questionable), Edmond Sumner PG (Questionable), Jeremy Lamb SG (Out), Myles Turner C (Out), T.J. Warren SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Wizards' last four games and 6-1 in the Pacers' last seven. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Pacers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
While the Pacers' dysfunctional coaching staff has contributed to the mess in Indiana, it's the injury bug that is the most to blame. Not only have solid wings T.J. Warren and Jeremy Lamb been missing for the Pacers, but crucially, so too has Myles Turner. While Domantas Sabonis rightfully gets the attention in Indiana's frontcourt, operating as one of the league's best offensive hubs at the elbow, they have sorely missed Turner's rim protection.
Turner was averaging a career- and league-high 3.4 blocks per game through 47 games, before a foot injury ended his season. Without one of the league's elite rim protectors, the Pacers' paint defense has collapsed. Despite ranking in the top half of the league in defensive rating, Indiana is allowing the most points in the paint per game this season at 53.7.
So, not only are the Wizards' duo of Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal coming into this one in scorching form, but they'll find a highly advantageous matchup. Beal is one of the league's truly elite three-level scorers and excels at the rim, taking just over seven attempts per game within five feet and making them at a superb 63.5 percent clip.
Westbrook, meanwhile, may be a severely limited offensive player at this stage of his career, but he is still an absolute bullet getting to the rack. The high-flying, trash-talking triple-double machine is taking six shots at the rim per game this year, making 63.1 percent of his attempts — by far his most efficient area of the floor.
All told, Washington has two high-level finishers and score the fifth-most points in the paint per game in the NBA. The Pacers are coming undone and won't find it any easier on Saturday.
PREDICTION: Wizards -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
While they are 4-1 O/U in their last five, it's a bit surprising Washington has not more consistently rewarded Over bettors in 2021 (34-33 O/U on the year). The Wizards have played track meet after track meet this year and easily lead the league in pace, with 107.9 possessions per game. The gap between Washington and the next closest team (the Timberwolves at 105.7) is the same as the gap between Minnesota and the 11th placed Nets.
The Pacers, meanwhile, have consistently rewarded the Over in 2021, at 40-25-1 on the season. That's thanks to, in large part, the combination of a wildly leaky defense and two high-efficiency initiators and scorers on offense in Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon.
Westbrook and Beal may exploit the Pacers' rim defense on Saturday, but on the other end, Indiana will meet little resistance. The Wizards' defense has only, on occasion, flirted with mediocrity in 2021 and they are only just crawling out of the bottom-10 in defensive metrics.
These two teams played to a 295-point total in regulation on Monday, flying over the 245.5 total. Neither side has given any indication it will be any different in the rematch. Hoops purists, look away. Over bettors, check-in.
PREDICTION: Over 247.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
As the last few years have shown, Russell Westbrook is an undeniable force when he's on a mission. (Unfortunately, that mission usually is focused on inefficient shots or hollow stat lines.) The mission Saturday? Secure the 181st triple-double of his storied career in order to tie Oscar Robertson for the all-time record.
Westbrook, the absolute force of nature, has a great chance to tie Robertson's record in this one. The Pacers are playing without pride at the moment, and Monday's win for Washington over Indiana saw Westbrook finish with a ridiculous 14-point, 24-assist, 21-rebound line. He's already secured another triple-double average on the season and on Saturday, he'll tie a historic record.
PREDICTION: Russell Westbrook Over 51.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
Wizards vs Pacers betting card
- Wizards -3.5 (-110)
- Over 247.5 (-110)
- Russell Westbrook Over 51.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
Picks made on 5/7/2021 at 4:30 p.m. ET
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