The Golden State Warriors stunned the Minnesota Timberwolves with a road win in Game 1 of this Western Conference semifinal set, but lost superstar Stephen Curry to injury in the process.
Now, with Curry sidelined for at least a week, Minnesota is a monster favorite to return serve at home.
I dig into Curry's absence and the potential player performances for tonight’s Game 2 and give my best Warriors vs Timberwolves props on Thursday, May 8.
Best Warriors vs Timberwolves props
Podziemski o3.5 assists (-105)
DiVincenzo o10.5 points (-120)- Kuminga o7.5 points (-125)
Warriors vs Timberwolves player props for May 8
Brandin Podziemski Over 3.5 assists (-105 at bet365)
With Steph Curry out for Game 2, the Golden State Warriors backcourt gets a shake-up and will lean on Brandin Podziemski more.
Podziemski has been whatever the Warriors have needed him to be in the playoffs. He’s gone from a red-hot scorer to a competent glue guy, like his Game 1 stat line of three points, three assists, and eight rebounds.
After Curry’s injury, Podziemski talked to reporters about the urge to replace that scoring missing in the rotation but was much more focused on filling the gap by committee and getting his teammates easy looks.
“Everybody gets a rhythm from touching the ball more,” Podziemski told the media. “I’ll find offense throughout the flow of the offense in the combination with getting others involved, too.”
His assists prop has been parked at 3.5 for most of the postseason, with bookmakers juggling the juice game to game. He averaged 3.0 assists versus Houston in Round 1 but did dish out four or more dimes in three of those seven contests.
Podziemski will have the ball in his hands more tonight and his potential for passing surges. His advanced metrics show the second-year guard generating 7.1 potential assists per playoff game and the majority of player projections sit north of his 3.5-assist total for tonight.
Forecasts range from 3.2 to 4.0 dimes from Podziemski tonight, with my number at four helpers and recognizing a much higher ceiling for playmaking. Curry recently missed a trio of games in March and Podziemski handed out four assists in two of those outings without him.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 10.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Donte DiVincenzo didn’t have a great performance in Game 1, scoring just seven points in the loss.
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ pesky reserve guard played 33 minutes but finished 3-for-11 from the floor, including a miserable 1-for-7 from 3-point range. This isn’t just a one-off performance from DiVincenzo, who has struggled with his shooting — as has Minnesota as a team — in the playoffs.
For the postseason, he’s averaging only 7.8 points on 38.6% shooting, with a 34.4% success rate from beyond the arc. This comes on the heels of a regular season in which he averaged 11.7 points and shot almost 43% from the floor.
DiVincenzo has topped his scoring prop only once in the playoffs but tonight could be the night he and the Wolves finally get untracked. Player projections are optimistic about DiVincenzo’s output, with models coming out above his 10.5-point total and my number sitting close to 12.5 points.
With Curry out, DiVincenzo doesn’t have to be as busy on defense and with Minnesota pegged as a double-digit fave, game script says the home side will have a healthy lead and give more minutes to the bench – especially if it can bust this game wide open.
With a win in hand and Curry out of action, the Warriors could concede Game 2 knowing it gets to go home with a split. Garbage time could be in play tonight.
Jonathan Kuminga Over 7.5 Points (-125 at bet365)
Jonathan Kuminga has been a round peg for the Warriors’ square hole since Jimmy Butler showed up in the Bay Area. The addition of another superstar found Kuminga bumped from the rotation and taking a major hit to his minutes.
When Butler went down with an injury against Houston, Kuminga was called to action in Games 2 and 3. He scored 18 total points during 43 collective minutes in those contests before returning to hibernation until some garbage-time minutes in Game 7.
When Curry went down in the first half of Game 1 in Minnesota, Golden State coach Steve Kerr gave Kuminga some run and received seven points in 13 minutes from the 6-foot-7 forward, who was averaging almost 17 points per game before Butler showed up in February.
Tonight’s Game 2 in Minnesota is a tricky tilt to tangle with. The Warriors bagged their road win already, Minnesota is super pissed, and with Curry sidelined, Kerr could cut his losses and head for home with a split and risk no further injuries to key players. We already saw him pull the plug in a blowout loss to the Rockets in Game 5.
Enter Kuminga.
Some Game 2 player projections are giving off garbage-time vibes, with Kuminga pegged for more than 13 points over 23 minutes. Other forecasts are tempered but still coming out higher than his current scoring prop, with those models ranging from 7.0 to 10.2 points between 14 to 19 minutes of action.
I’m going to bet the Over 7.5 points for Kuminga and also ladder his point production with sprinkles on 10+ points (+140) and 15+ points (+450).
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