The Golden State Warriors are now the old guard in the NBA, and they’re just trying to stay in the play-in picture a quarter into the season.
They face one of the new kids on the elite block Friday, when they wrap up a four-game season series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
OKC is a 3.5-point home favorite in the NBA odds, and it’s trying to win this head-to-head series for the first time since the 2019-20 season.
Read below for my free NBA picks for this Western Conference battle on December 8.
Warriors vs Thunder odds
Warriors vs Thunder predictions
Other than superstar-level play from Steph Curry, the Warriors have been a disaster. They’ve lost 10 of their last 15 and have alternated wins and losses in their last eight games.
Last time out, they got a much-needed 110-106 win over the lowly Portland Trail Blazers. Curry led the team in scoring for the 17th time in 19 games played with 31 points, hitting five triples, while also adding five boards.
The Thunder, meanwhile, dropped a 110-101 decision against the Rockets, but they’re still in the midst of eight wins over their last 11 games.
OKC is the only team in the NBA to rank Top-6 in both offensive and defensive rating, and they lead the league with a blistering 39.6% shooting clip from downtown.
The previous three matchups this season have been relative shootouts. The Warriors took the first game at OKC Nov 3 by a 141-139 score, a game SGA missed with a sore left knee. Curry scored the winning bucket with 0.2 seconds left to cap off a 30-point night.
The Thunder won back-to-back at Chase Center. OKC routed them 128-109 on Nov 16, a game Curry missed due to injury. Two nights later, the Thunder needed overtime to escape with a 130-123 win. SGA was the leading scorer for OKC in both games.
If you’re doing the math at home, you’ll see the lowest output between the two sides this season has been 237 points.
In fact, this head-to-head has produced Overs in seven straight games, and each of those games has bested Friday night’s 236-point total.
OKC plays at the seventh-fastest pace in basketball, and the Dubs still operate at the 12th in pace. Expect these teams to go up and down the court again at the Paycom Center.
My best bet: Over 236 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Warriors vs Thunder same-game parlay
Over 236 points
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3-pointers
Klay Thompson Under 16.5 points
Let’s build a same-game parlay, with the focus on the long-time Splash Brother backcourt. Start with Curry, who has been on another level from beyond the arc.
He leads the NBA with a ridiculous 5.1 makes per game on just under 12 attempts, a very healthy 42.9% clip. There’s only one other player in the league — Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton — that’s even into the rarefied four-makes-per-game range.
In 19 games this year, Steph has hit at least five 3-pointers in 12 games, including the two games he’s played against the Thunder, going a combined 10-for-21, a 47.6% rate.
The Thunder have one of the better 3-point defenses in the NBA, limiting their opponents to 35.1% from distance, which ranks eighth overall. It’s just that Curry is above all these numbers.
For Golden State to be competitive, he’s going to have to be a dynamo again.
One of the reasons Curry has needed to go supernova mode so much this year is because of the rapidly declining play of Klay Thompson.
Major knee and Achilles injuries have sapped the basketball life out of a player once considered among the best two-way players in the NBA.
Since getting ejected in a game mid-November against Minnesota, Thompson has gone for 20+ points four times, while going for 17 or less four times. He’s coming off a 3-for-13 effort against Portland, including a dismal 1-for-8 from downtown, finishing with 11 points and five boards.
After scoring 18 in the opener against OKC — powered by a 4-for-6 mark from downtown — he proceeded to score a combined 21 in the next two against the Thunder, hitting just 4-for-15 from 3-point range.
I don’t see his scoring touch coming back anytime soon, and not against a Thunder defense with a healthy complement of wing/perimeter players that can contain him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Warriors vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
There’s been some movement on the spread, with the Thunder as little as 2.5-point favorites. Most books have widened that spread to 3.5 points, though some books have the Dubs as high as 4.5-point dogs.
The Thunder have the second-best record against the spread in the NBA, going 14-6-0 in their 20 games, and 8-3-0 ATS as the betting favorite.
The Dubs hold their own on the road, however, going 5-2-0 ATS as an away underdog.
As for the total, the lowest bookmakers could bring this to was 234 points, with most sites offering nothing lower than 235.5 points.
The Over is 11-10-0 in Warriors games, while the Over has hit in 11 of 20 Thunder games.
Warriors vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Thunder have covered the spread in six of their last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Thunder.
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Warriors vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Friday, December 8, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS- Bay Area, Bally Sports OK |
Warriors vs Thunder latest injuries
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