The veteran Golden State Warriors have the young Houston Rockets on the brink of elimination, and that reality could make for a tense Game 5 tonight.
My Warriors vs. Rockets props and NBA picks focus on a couple of pieces of Houston’s offense that need to show up to keep the series going.
Also, check out our Warriors vs. Rockets predictions before the tip comes at 7:30 p.m. ET on April 30.
Best Warriors vs Rockets props
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Sengun 25+ points (+220) - VanVleet o2.5 threes (-170)
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Green u3.5 assists (+130)
Warriors vs Rockets player props for April 30
Alperen Sengun 25+ points (+220 at bet365)
Basketball aficionados should hope the Houston Rockets put together a run this postseason. If nothing else, extend this series to seven games. We should all relish more time with Alperen Sengun going to work.
He is an underappreciated player. His offensive skillset is deep, and the fourth-year center has grown into this series.
In an elimination game, the Rockets should rely on their best player, and it will not shock anyone if the home team gets more foul calls on the verge of its season ending.
Sengun went 7 of 10 at the line on Monday, making more free throws than he had even taken in a game yet this series. That helped him to 31 points, the second time in these four games he cleared this milestone.
Sengun’s points prop is set at 20.5 with the Over at -115. Suggesting he score two more buckets at the reward of +220 is a distinct value.
Fred VanVleet Over 2.5 threes (-170 at bet365)
Fred VanVleet starred in Game 4, hitting 8 of 12 triples while going 0-for-1 inside the arc. That kind of confidence in any given moment was the exact reason the Rockets gave him a $128.5 million contract. This is a young team, and it needs at least one player who will not shy away from big moments.
VanVleet has directed an NBA championship, beating Steph and Draymond in the 2019 Finals. Facing them in the first round does not keep him up at night. VanVleet almost assuredly will not hit eight 3-pointers again, but he might take a dozen.
The stakes of this game demand that confidence. VanVleet knows this is why he is in Houston for three years. If he is not shooting, then he is not worth $42.8 million per year.
He may have needed that Game 4 success — going 6-for-29 (20.7%) in the first three games of the series, part of struggling from deep since returning from an ankle injury — but now that he had it, one has to assume VanVleet will not go gunshy now.
Draymond Green Under 3.5 assists (+130 at bet365)
Anyone who watched Game 4 knows there is value in Unders on Draymond Green props simply because he is on the verge of an ejection in this series.
That is not a sufficient reason in itself to make a bet, but it should be acknowledged. Green and the Rockets do not like each other, particularly Dillon Brooks, and he began acting out repeatedly in Game 4.
With his reputation, he will be on thin ice in Game 5, and any further skirmishes are likely to end with further Green discipline. That aside, the Golden State Warriors are not calling on Green for as much playmaking these days. That role has become Jimmy Butler’s.
For years, a pick-and-roll between Steph Curry and Draymond Green put opponents in a miserable position because if they did not double-team Curry, he would do the obvious and hit a 3-pointer.
But if they doubled Curry, then Green basically had a 4-on-3 mini-break in front of him, and with his basketball IQ, ready buckets followed for his teammates.
Putting Butler into that action is even more problematic for opponents because he has a better shot and is better driving down the lane.
Green has cleared this prop just once this series, when Butler was sidelined in Game 3. In the other three games, he has averaged two assists. For once, this is not a criticism of Green. It is simply a new reality.
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