Warriors vs Lakers Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Russell Leads LA's Supporting Cast

The bright lights of Hollywood are blinding to the Golden State Warriors, who found themselves starring in a horror movie in their Western Conference semifinal with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Golden State is hoping to flip the script with a “comeback story” when it takes on L.A. in Game 4 inside Crypto.com Arena tonight.

The Lakers are installed as one-possession home chalk after a 30-point massacre of the reigning NBA champs in Game 3 on Saturday. After a close contest in the series opener, these Western foes have traded one-sided squashes the past two games.

I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday’s matchup and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Warriors at Lakers on May 8.

Warriors vs Lakers Game 4 best odds

Warriors vs Lakers Game 4 picks and predictions

In a game in which the Los Angeles Lakers went to the foul line 37 times and made 28 of those free throws, D’Angelo Russell needed no charity. Los Angeles’ shooting guard scored 21 points with five triples (all in the first half) and was the only starter not to attempt a single foul shot.

Russell has been up-and-down with his contributions so far in the postseason, bookending a 5-for-12 shooting night for 10 points in Game 2 with outputs of 19 points in Game 1 and 21 in Game 3.

That most recent showing eclipsed a 14.5-point player prop on Saturday and while his total has jumped to 16.5 for Game 4, Russell’s ceiling still sits comfortably above that number Monday. Player projections range from 16 to 18.4 points for Russell tonight, with my estimation coming out to 17.5 points.

The Golden State Warriors defense will throw some different looks at the Lakers tonight, but with L.A. scoring inside and drawing fouls in Game 3, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Steve Kerr try to plug up the paint and see if L.A.’s guards can hurt them from outside.

Russell can score from kick-outs to the 3-point line, in transition, as well as create his own looks when the shot clock ticks down. While I don’t expect him to knock down as many triples as he did in Game 3, he does see his offensive output spike at home where he averages more than 18 points and shoots close to 41% from beyond the arc (vs. 16.7 ppg and 38% 3-point on the road).

My best bet: D’Angelo Russell Over 16.5 points (-119)

Warriors vs Lakers same-game parlay

D'Angelo Russell Over 16.5 points (-113)

Draymond Green Over 6.5 assists (-148)

Over 227 (-110)

+392 at FanDuel

The high end of Russell’s points projections has him scoring more than 18 points in Game 4, which is something he’s done twice already in the first three games of this series. Draymond only had four assists in a poor offensive outing for the Dubs in Game 3, but he’s pegged for 7.7 by my Game 4 projections. And we’ll lean Over 227 points with the Lakers offense enjoying some home cooking and the Warriors pegged for positive regression after a rare off day from outside. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Lakers Game 4 spread and Over/Under analysis

Following Saturday’s 30-burger laid on the Dubs in Game 3, the Lakers’ Game 4 line hit the board at -3.5. That spread dwindled to L.A. -3 and even as low as -2.5 as of Monday morning. According to BetMGM books, 68% of ticket count and 72% of handle are grabbing the points with Golden State... and for good reason.

The Warriors won’t be rattled by the one-sided win, leaning into their ample postseason experience and the game-to-game adjustments from head coach Steve Kerr. During his tenure in Golden State, Kerr’s Warriors are 29-9 SU and 24-13-1 ATS (64.5%) when coming off a loss the previous game.

As promising as that trend is for Warriors backers, there are plenty of problems for Kerr & Co. to sort out, especially with the way the Lakers dominated Game 3 on both ends.

Golden State’s scoring depth has been matched by L.A.’s output, with points coming from places beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis. D’Angelo Russell put in his best showing of the series with 21 points in Game 3, most notably giving the Lakers reliable outside shooting with a 5-for-8 mark from beyond the arc.

The Purple and Gold are pretty much unstoppable when James and Davis dominate inside and get to the foul line, complemented by solid perimeter play. It’s the latter part that hasn’t always been there for L.A. and is still a major mismatch against a Dubs offense that will happily trade threes for twos.

Defensively, Los Angeles was locked in for Game 3 and has been for the most part since its roster swap in mid-February. It was helped out by a downshift in gears, with an efficient offense and 37 free-throw attempts forcing the Dubs to start their offense from the inbounds.

The first two games in San Francisco were played at a tempo of 101.25 (both played Over the total) while Game 3 dropped to 100.5, with Los Angeles able to get back in the halfcourt defense and check the Warriors to just 39.6% shooting from the floor, along with a 13-for-44 mark from outside.

That 127-97 final score stayed below the closing total of 229.5 points on the weekend and has the Game 4 total trimming a touch after opening at 228 and sliding down to 227.5. BetMGM is reporting 55% of bets on the Over and a one-sided 81% of the money banking on a high-scoring finish tonight.

I don’t see the Warriors continuing to struggle that much nor do I see the Lakers making 15 triples. But if L.A. continues to get to the foul line at a high rate, those points scored with the clock stopped will help push this score past the Over/Under expectations.

Warriors vs Lakers betting trend to know

Favorites of -3 or less have gone 10-4 SU and ATS, including a 6-1 SU and ATS count as home favorites of -3 or shorter during these playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Lakers.

Warriors vs Lakers Game 4 game info

Warriors vs Lakers Game 4 key injuries

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