The Los Angeles Clippers may need to light a fire, as they staggered into the All-Star break at 4-6 SU in their last 10 games and were overtaken by the Phoenix Suns in the West playoff bracket.
Speaking of the West playoffs, the Golden State Warriors are going to have to grind just to make it there, currently sitting ninth at 19-18 and hoping to gain the upper hand for a play-in spot.
With both squads looking to start the second half on a good note, which team has the edge for NBA betting? Let's dive into our Warriors vs. Clippers picks for Thursday, March 11.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: James Wiseman C (Questionable).
Clippers: None.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Under is 7-2 in Clippers' last nine games playing on three or more days rest, and 6-1 in Warriors' last seven overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Clippers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel bounced between Los Angeles -7.5 and -7 a few times since posting this line Wednesday night, then made a couple trips to -6.5 this afternoon and is at -7 as of 7 p.m. ET. It's two-way point-spread action, with 57 percent of bets on the Warriors and 53 percent of money on the Clippers. The total opened at 231 and is at its low of 229, with 62 percent of bets/55 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
For a team that needed to set the tone this season, the Clippers haven't exactly done an amazing job so far. Yes, they've had inspiring stretches, but also dropped four of their last five coming into the All-Star break. They look more like a team "playing for June" than a team "playing with everything to prove after an embarrassing playoff collapse." They risk usurping by the Nuggets (who have grossly underperformed thus far) and the Blazers (who have arguably been the NBA's most-injured team), and losing homecourt in the West would be a fairly depressing way for them to limp into the postseason.
The Warriors, meanwhile, have been more or less as advertised. Stephen Curry's been a human blowtorch, Draymond Green's proven last year was an outlier and he's not washed yet, and Golden State as a unit has been on the West playoff fringe.
The Clippers' perimeter defense bodes well in this matchup. Patrick Beverley may not be the All-World soul-snatcher he once was, but is still an elite means of containing Curry (relative as that term may be). Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are also capable of switching onto Curry and should make life hell for Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre in the interim. That's over 55 percent of Golden State's per-game points smothered by very good defenders.
And while Oubre and Wiggins aren't the sieves they used to be on defense, they'll struggle in their own right trying to contain two of the NBA's most dynamic scorers in Leonard and George.
The Clippers certainly have the greater impetus to win here, match up well, and should benefit more from rest given their veteran-heavy rotation and propensity to load-manage. Back them to start the second half on a strong note.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles -7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
There's plenty of conflicting data when trying to mine a safe total bet for this game.
For example, the Warriors play at the NBA's second-fastest pace, while the Clippers play at its second-slowest.
Somewhat counter-intuitively (and also conflicting for this bet's purpose), Golden State is the league's 27th-ranked team against the Over (15-22), while L.A. sits fifth at 22-15.
The Clippers have been a highly mercurial team when it comes to totals, with outliers all over the map. They totaled just 205 points against a 231 O/U vs. Milwaukee, but also engaged in a 244-point shootout with the Knicks against a 210.5 total in a game that, on paper, seemed like a custom-baked Under recipe.
It really wouldn't surprise us to see this one go either way, but the Clippers need to wake up on D. They're the NBA's 18th-ranked defensive team after being fifth in the same category last year. After a week of rest and reflection, and with a favorable matchup against Golden State's gunners, count on them to flex that edge and keep this one Under a reasonable total.
PREDICTION: Under 231.5 (-110)
First half prop pick
As their season thus far might indicate, the Clippers fancy themselves a team that can coast and flip the switch when needed. Obviously, the accuracy of that self-assessment remains to be seen.
But in terms of a game-by-game basis, L.A. isn't one to start slow, owning the NBA's fifth-best ATS mark in the first half at 22-15-1.
Given their sense of urgency, it's tough to see them starting slow in this game and, as mentioned above, the Clips should benefit greatly from the prolonged rest. Back them to get the job early rather than play catch-up.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles first half -3.5 (-115)
Warriors vs Clippers betting card
- Los Angeles -7 (-110)
- Under 231.5 (-110)
- Los Angeles first half -3.5 (-115)
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