Our NBA player prop projections are back for tonight’s primetime matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors, and the model has already identified several standout opportunities.
After breaking down the data and comparing our projections with the current market lines, we’ve pinpointed the spots offering the strongest betting value.
These Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions aren’t based on gut instinct — they’re driven by the numbers. If you’re building your betting card, these are the model’s top NBA picks for Friday, March 13.
Timberwolves vs Warriors computer picks for March 13
 Timberwolves |
 Warriors |
|---|---|
| Edwards u29.5 points -105 |
Podziemski o15.5 points -115 |
| Reid o6.5 rebounds +102 |
Green u1.5 threes -105 |
| Randle o4.5 assists +120 |
Horford o5.5 rebounds -145 |
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Timberwolves computer picks
Anthony Edwards Under 29.5 points (-105)
Projection: 28.0 points
Although Anthony Edwards has only gone Under his 29.5-point line in four of the last 10 games, the matchup still presents challenges.
Opposing starting shooting guards have been held to just 38.4% shooting from the field against the Golden State Warriors — the second-lowest mark allowed in the league — making this a difficult spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves star to erupt offensively.
Naz Reid Over 6.5 rebounds (+102)
Projection: 6.6 rebounds
The Timberwolves have played at the ninth-fastest pace in the league over their last 25 road games, a tempo that could boost rebounding opportunities for Naz Reid.
Reid has cleared his 6.5-rebound line in four of his last 10 games and could benefit from the increased possessions in this matchup.
Julius Randle Over 4.5 assists (+120)
Projection: 4.6 assists
Julius Randle has only cleared the 4.5-rebound line in three of his last 10, but tonight’s matchup presents a much more favorable environment for him to get back on the glass.
One key factor is the style of this Warriors offense. Golden State relies heavily on perimeter shooting and high-volume 3-point attempts, which naturally creates long rebound opportunities.
Warriors computer picks
Brandin Podziemski Over 15.5 points (-115)
Projection: 16.3 points
Brandin Podziemski has averaged 17.6 points per game over his last five contests, which is 5.0 points higher than his season average.
That scoring bump could continue against the Timberwolves, who have played at the ninth-fastest road pace in the NBA over their last 25 games.
The uptick in tempo should lead to more possessions for the Warriors, giving Podziemski additional opportunities to stay aggressive offensively.
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Draymond Green Under 1.5 threes (-105)
Projection: 1.4 threes
The matchup with the Timberwolves isn’t an ideal one for perimeter shooting. Opposing starting power forwards are attempting just 3.6 threes per game against Minnesota this season — the third-fewest in the league.
That trend could limit opportunities from deep for Draymond Green of the Warriors, especially after he’s already gone Under his 1.5 made threes line in six of his last 10 games.
Al Horford Over 5.5 rebounds (-145)
Projection: 6.0 rebounds
The Warriors should see an increase in possessions against the Timberwolves.
Golden State has also been the league’s top offensive-rebounding team over the last 10 games, a trend that could benefit Al Horford, who's cleared his 5.5 rebound line in six of his last 10 games.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Warriors tonight
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Friday, March 13, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime |
Not intended for use in MA.
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