Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made NBA player prop bettors happy with his Game 4 stat line — at least those who wagered on the Over.
The newly crowned NBA MVP scored 40 points, dished out 10 assists, and snatched nine rebounds in OKC’s road win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday. Those results all blew past his closing prop totals.
More importantly, that effort helped set the table for an elimination scenario back inside Paycom Center for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. I run down the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds and give you my best NBA picks below.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s nine rebounds — and near triple-double — easily eclipsed his closing rebound total of 4.5 O/U in Game 4.
That prop market was at 5.5 O/U for the first three games of the Western Conference Finals, but with SGA mustering totals of just two, three, and five boards in those outings, the market dwindled to 4.5 O/U with the Over priced at -145 for Monday’s clash.
His nine-rebound effort wasn’t an anomaly but rather a product of the Oklahoma City Thunder rolling out a smaller lineup for most of Game 4. OKC went away from the two-center rotation that worked so well against Denver in Round 2 and played more small ball, which upped SGA’s activity on the glass.
In the first three games of the WCF, his advanced metrics show an average of only 7.0 rebounding chances. That analytic spiked to 11.0 rebounding chances in Game 4, which translated into the first Over winner for his rebounding prop.
The Thunder found success with that solo-center lineup, which allowed them to spread the floor on offense and unclog the middle of the paint. SGA and Jalen Williams had more space to attack and then kick to outside shooters.
Minnesota had to match that size, playing reserve guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo extended minutes. With a shorter rotation from the Wolves, SGA wasn’t just cleaning the defensive glass but getting after it on the offensive end as well. He grabbed four offensive rebounds, which boosted his output.
Regression will rear its ugly head in Game 5, and I don’t expect Gilgeous-Alexander to go that hard on the glass, but pulling down at least six rebounds is very possible. Player projections aren’t bullish on his boards, but models range from 5.2 to 6.0 rebounds, and the majority are either on or above the total of 5.5 O/U.
With Minnesota fighting for its life, this should be a closely contested game. Shai has played 40+ minutes in the two WCF games that weren’t blowouts, which has me on the high side of his projections. My number comes out to 6.11 rebounds, which should have the Over 5.5 listed closer to -120.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 5+ rebounds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ threes
With OKC rolling out a smaller lineup, SGA’s presence on the boards peaks. His rebounding chances spiked from 7.0 to 11.0 in Game 4 and I have him for six or more boards tonight.
That small-ball lineup for the Thunder is creating more drive-and-kick opportunities for SGA. He dished out 10 dimes in Game 4 with advanced metrics showing 15.0 potential assists.
Gilgeous-Alexander has knocked down two triples in each of the past two games, shooting a combined 12 threes after attempting a collective six in the first two games. Player projections sit between 1.9 and 2.5 triples tonight.
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