In Anthony Edwards’s career, the Minnesota Timberwolves have played in six elimination games, winning three as outright underdogs. After Monday’s disappointment of a two-point loss, that is about the only optimism available.
To upset the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, Edwards may need to star. He will certainly need to star more than he did in the Game 4 loss. My Anthony Edwards props and NBA picks expect that to become reality at this 8:30 p.m. ET tip on Wednesday, May 28.
Anthony Edwards player prop picks
- Best bet
Anthony Edwards 30+ points
(+165 at bet365) - SGP pick
Anthony Edwards 30+ points
Anthony Edwards Under 5.5 assists
Anthony Edwards Over 7.5 rebounds
(+750 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Anthony Edwards best bet
Anthony Edwards 30+ Points (+165 at bet365)
These odds have ticked up from earlier today when they sat at +155. Why? With a milestone market, that can be tough to pinpoint. Anthony Edwards’ points prop has not moved, sitting at 26.5.
Consider that -115 on the Over when looking at this milestone. If Edwards scores three more points than his points Over, it would come at a payout 80 cents better. That alone is valuable.
Edwards was timid in Game 4 — if such a word can ever be applied to the fifth-year guard. He did not hunt his shot early, and it was rarely available late. That is not to say Edwards made mistakes. His six assists helped spur Minnesota to 126 points against the best defense in the NBA.
Something was obviously working.
Back at the turn of the year, Edwards played similarly in two games against the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Boston Celtics, scoring 35 points total, shooting 11-for-28 from the field. He openly lamented how often he was getting double-teamed after those two losses. And then he went and scored 53 points in a loss to Detroit.
Edwards is never timid for long. His aggression is inevitable. And with the Minnesota Timberwolves' season on the line, that inevitability should become reality tonight. When that focused, Edwards rarely shoots badly from deep, including going 10-for-15 against the Pistons that night of 53 points.
That kind of performance should come tonight. The stakes are too high. And if Edwards indeed dials in, then finding an escalated payout thanks to just three more points is too rich of value to ignore.
Anthony Edwards same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards 30+ points
Anthony Edwards Under 5.5 assists
Anthony Edwards Over 7.5 rebounds
If Edwards is scoring in bunches, he is not moving the ball to the corners as much. That is just a reality. Oklahoma City does not mind giving up corner threes. In fact, it is a feature of this defense, and on Monday, Minnesota made those count.
Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jaden McDaniels combined to go 13-for-22 from deep. That was encouraging enough, the Thunder may slightly adjust their defense.
Not by much, but perhaps they will grant Edwards more driving lanes and help off shooters less. That would cut into Edwards’s playmaking, just as some outright aggression should.
The most surprising part of Monday was not Edwards shooting so much less. It was that he found only four rebounds.
All of Minnesota struggled to rebound, and that cost the game. In the first three games of this series, Edwards grabbed nine rebounds in each. That should return to his stat line tonight.
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