- UPDATE: Added a +775 SGP & who will win prediction!
The San Antonio Spurs may not have won the battle, but they’ve got the inside track on the war with the Western Conference finals locked at 1-1 heading to Texas tonight.
After winning the series opener, San Antonio struggled through a disjointed road loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday. Injuries, turnovers, and OKC’s physical approach to slowing down Victor Wembanyama all took their toll.
Our Thunder vs. Spurs predictions for Game 3 see Wembanyama pushing back, especially with the unknown status of San Antonio’s backcourt stars.
My NBA picks and Thunder vs. Spurs same-game parlay like Wemby to top his scoring prop on Friday, May 22.
Thunder vs Spurs prediction Game 3 prediction tonight
Who will win Thunder vs Spurs Game 3?
Spurs: If De’Aaron Fox and/or Dylan Harper can come back from injury in Game 3, the path is cleaner for the Spurs. San Antonio’s turnover troubles could be solved with steady hands in the backcourt. On the year, this was a tough team at home.
The Spurs are 36-10 SU as hosts (57.6% ATS) and are a solid 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS on their own floor when coming off a loss in the previous game. Considering how sideways Game 2 got, San Antonio was still within five points in the final minutes. That shows just how good the Spurs truly are.
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Thunder vs Spurs best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 25.5 points (-105)
The Oklahoma City Thunder put Isaiah Hartenstein on Victor Wembanyama in Game 2 and used a more physical defensive approach to push him away from the basket.
After taking 21 of his 25 shots in the paint in Game 1, Wembanyama attempted just 8 of 16 FGAs in the key on Wednesday.
The constant abuse wore him down late and contributed to a more passive outing. He also reached the foul line only twice despite plenty of questionable contact.
With the San Antonio Spurs home for Game 3, I expect a more aggressive Wembanyama and friendlier whistles from the officials.
COVERS INTEL: Wembanyama sees a near 3-point uptick in scoring at home compared to the road, and Game 3 projections sit as high as 27+ points. Those forecasts include injured guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper. Should one or both guards sit, Wemby shoulders more of the scoring load.Thunder vs Spurs same-game parlay
De’Aaron Fox has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, and Dylan Harper is fighting through a bum leg. That said, I have more confidence in those guards coming back than OKC’s Jalen Williams, who re-aggravated a hamstring injury in Game 2.
The Spurs played poorly and had bad luck, yet still stuck around on Wednesday. Getting back home helps settle things down, especially in the turnover department.
With Williams out, Oklahoma City needs another scorer to step up. Chet Holmgren has had issues against the Spurs this season, carrying over to a 7-for-17 start to this series. He did make two triples in Game 1, and his ability to stretch the floor with his shooting is vital to the Thunder.
After missing minutes in Game 2, Chet gets a wake-up call and knocks down two or more 3-pointers in Game 3.
Our "from downtown” same-game parlay: Lone Star Shootout
After a physical Game 2 took its toll on both rosters, the Spurs and Thunder are missing complementary pieces to their offense. That means they’ll lean extra hard on their star players.
I expect more scoring from the stripe from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama after the refs swallowed their whistles in Game 2. Points with the clock stopped are a recipe for Overs.
Thunder vs Spurs odds tonight
- Spread: Oklahoma City +2 (-110) | San Antonio -2 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City +110 | San Antonio -130
- Over/Under: Over 217.5 (-110) | Under 217.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Spurs betting trend to know
San Antonio is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS at home when coming off a loss in the previous game this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Spurs.
How to watch Thunder vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Friday, May 22, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC, Peacock |
Thunder vs Spurs latest injuries
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