The New Orleans Pelicans are on the ropes in this first-round series, and my Thunder vs Pelicans predictions don’t think it’ll get easier, with Zion Williamson still out and the Oklahoma City Thunder bringing a 2-0 lead into today’s Game 3.
The Thunder rode big nights from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren on the way to a 124-92 victory on Wednesday, and they’re slight road favorites in today's NBA odds.
What moves do the Pelicans have left with their season on the line? My free NBA picks for April 27 answer that question and more.
Thunder vs Pelicans predictions
My best bet
Thunder -1 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
If the playoff spotlight seemed a little bright for OKC in Game 1, that didn’t last for long. The Thunder looked ominously poised in Game 2 while shooting 59% from the field and getting just about any look they wanted.
I see Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & Co. bringing that form on the road with them here — and I love the value of this tiny spread for the visitors.
The Thunder have won seven games in a row, and they’ve dominated this matchup, winning six of the past seven meetings.
That speaks to OKC’s ability to control the matchups on the wing, with Jalen Williams and Lu Dort locked in, and use the Chet Holmgren-Jonas Valanciunas showdown as a launchpad offensively.
It’s tough to see a path back into the series for New Orleans. Brandon Ingram was kept in check on Wednesday — attempting just 10 shots and battling early fouls and turnovers — and the Pelicans went just 22-20 at Smoothie King Center this season.
I prefer to trust a deep OKC roster that put together a 24-17 road record and is making a mockery of the concerns about postseason inexperience.
Thunder vs Pelicans same-game parlay (SGP)
Thunder -1
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander Over 28.5 points
Jonas Valanciunas Under 11.5 rebounds
I’m starting with the Thunder’s main man to build out my SGP. Gilgeous-Alexander has adjusted seamlessly to the postseason intensity, continuing his regular-season shotmaking.
He had 33 points in Game 2 on 13-for-19 shooting, and I expect OKC to count on him even more on the road. A desperate New Orleans team should keep this close, and I like SGA to cash this Over with more fourth-quarter magic.
The Pelicans have had some success with Valanciunas using his strength advantage against Holmgren, but the matchup is problematic at the other end of the floor, with the Thunder’s speed and shooting leaving the big Lithuanian on an island.
Valanciunas was held to seven rebounds in 23 minutes in Game 2, and New Orleans may need a smaller line-up — with Larry Nance at the 5 — to keep pace with the visitors.
Holmgren’s ability to step out and nail 3-pointers also nudges Valanciunas out of rebounding position, so I’m taking the Under for JV on the boards in a game where he could again see less than 25 minutes of action.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Thunder vs Pelicans odds
Thunder vs Pelicans live odds
Get the latest Thunder vs Pelicans NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Thunder vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -1 (-110) | New Orleans +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -115 | New Orleans -105
- Over/Under: Over 211 (-110) | Under 211 (-110)
Thunder vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder start as 1-point favorites, which feels about right after the nature of Wednesday’s beatdown — and with OKC’s 47-37 ATS mark this season.
- It’s essentially a must-win contest for New Orleans, but Williamson’s absence is a huge blow for the hosts, and the burden has looked too big for Ingram, who’s only just back from a knee injury.
- The Thunder served up a healthy dose of Overs during the regular season, but the total line has been cut back to 208.5 for Game 3 (it was 216.5 in the series opener in OKC.
- That line is more a reflection of the Pelicans’ offensive struggles in this series. New Orleans has been limited to 92 points in each game, with a lack of punch off the bench since Trey Murphy III was promoted to the starting line-up to replace Zion.
Thunder vs Pelicans trend
The Thunder have hit the Over in 23 of their last 37 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pelicans.
Thunder vs Pelicans game info
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Thunder vs Pelicans latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
