The Oklahoma City Thunder crumbled in the clutch the first two times this conference semifinal veered into such tense moments. That made sense; the Denver Nuggets have proven themselves in some of the toughest playoff moments in the last decade.
But now Oklahoma City has won two straight in the clutch to take control of this series with a 3-2 lead. Can the youngest team in the NBA avoid the letdown perhaps inherent to that control?
My Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks do not think so. Let’s trust the home underdog with its back against the wall. Tip comes at 8:30 ET on Thursday, May 15
Who will win Thunder vs Nuggets Game 6?
It is always dangerous to predict that the Oklahoma City Thunder will lose. In 92 games this regular season and postseason, they have fallen only 75 times.
But this is a new moment for Oklahoma City.
This young team has never had a chance to clinch a second-round series. Sweeping the Pelicans last year and the Grizzlies in this year’s first round hardly warrants much praise. Those were both lopsided series, hardly the competition we so adore about the playoffs.
Phrase that another way. The Thunder have never faced a high-quality team with its back against the wall. They do not know the intensity that can and should accompany it, especially when that team has the best player in the world and championship experience.
That is an added level of competition that cannot be prepared for without experiencing it, and Oklahoma City’s first experience against it should result in a loss.
Prediction: Denver Nuggets will win
Thunder vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet: Nuggets moneyline (+160 at bet365)
A more cautious man would take the Denver Nuggets at +4.5, available at -115 at bet365. After all, Denver has gone 4-1 against the spread in this series and 7-1-1 ATS since it last trailed in a series, then down 2-1 against the Clippers.
But perhaps look to that first-round series to appreciate the backbone in the Nuggets. Down 2-1, they won on the road despite being 6.5-point underdogs. Heading back to LA for a Game 7, they won by 19.
Amid the criticism of the Clippers — looking at you, Kawhi Leonard, more than you, James Harden — more credit should have been given to Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon.
It would be understandable to worry that Denver may simply have nothing left. Nikola Jokic played every minute of Tuesday’s fourth quarter on his way to 44 minutes total, scoring a point per minute to carry the Nuggets into clutch time once more. And yes, Denver absolutely fell short in those final two minutes because of fatigue.
But recognize two things, in addition to the stakes at hand. First of all, Jokic may be the best-conditioned player in the NBA. Anyone scoffing upon reading that is only admitting they do not watch Jokic. He may not look like the peak of cardiovascular fitness, but he simply does not stop. Second of all, remember this game is in Denver. The altitude on a 48-hour turnaround will impact the Thunder far more than it will the Nuggets.
Denver being an underdog makes sense. Shortening the spread from +6 in Game 3 and +7 in Game 4 begins to reflect that the Nuggets have gone 4-1 ATS in this series, but it also acknowledges the desperation of the moment. That desperation in a recent champion (2023 was not that long ago!) combined with the altitude, creates value in Denver no matter how you want to approach it.
A +160 moneyline is simply too high to turn down. And that is not an altitude pun.
Thunder vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Nuggets moneyline
Nuggets team total Under 106.5
Michael Porter Jr. Over 9.5 points
The first thought after the Denver moneyline was to include the Under 217.5 in this same-game parlay, but then counterintuitive payout instincts kicked in. Just the first two legs of this SGP reach +1,000 because it is seemingly absurd to bet on the underdog outright while expecting it to fall short of its team total.
The logic is that the Nuggets need to slow this down. The altitude should get to the Thunder regardless. Shortening the game a bit will help preserve Jokic, Murray and Gordon for the closing minutes.
Adding in an individual Nugget points Over prop creates the comedic value of +2,200. Any player has that impact. Nikola Jokic Over 28.5 points or Jamal Murray Over 21.5 or Christian Braun Over 12.5. They all reach +2,200. So do Peyton Watson Over 4.5 points and Russell Westbrook Over 9.5 points.
Why focus on Michael Porter Jr.? His 0-of-5 from deep in Game 5 was painful to watch because it was so clearly dictated by pain. Porter has a Grade 2 sprained AC joint in his left shoulder. Physically speaking, it is difficult for him to raise his arm above his head, let alone do so in a shooting motion. Do not claim that it is about pain tolerance. Some injuries cause such pain that your body refuses to indulge it, no matter how hard you try to push through it. Porter playing with this is impressive.
One of two things should now happen. Either Porter will get treatment that lessens the pain and thus improve his play, or he will commit to attacking the paint on drives and rebounds. Either version should improve upon his 1-of-7 overall.
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Thunder vs Nuggets odds
Thunder vs Nuggets live odds
Thunder vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -5 | Denver +5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -190 | Denver +160
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Five games are enough to begin to sway oddsmakers about power rankings, so this spread shortening 1-1.5 points from Game 3, the first of this series in Denver, starts to make sense as the Nuggets have repeatedly exceeded expectations.
- That could also be phrased, “as the Thunder have repeatedly fallen short of expectations.”
- Game 4’s comical 92-87 final score should be somewhat dismissed when looking at this total, resting at 217.5. The last game in Denver had an absurd 38-hour turnaround from Game 3, compromising both teams thanks to the NBA’s foolishness.
Thunder vs Nuggets trend
Oklahoma City is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Thunder vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Thursday, 5-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Nuggets latest injuries
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