The Oklahoma City Thunder’s title defense is off to an unbeaten but unrelenting start, and the next test comes tonight against the Atlanta Hawks.
OKC had to dig deep for a pair of double overtime wins this week, but my Thunder vs. Hawks predictions expect the champs to rally here, with another MVP-level outing from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the head of the snake.
Get the lowdown with my NBA picks for Saturday, October 25.
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Thunder vs Hawks prediction
Thunder vs Hawks best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-115)
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s unstoppable march to the NBA summit has been propelled by a string of home-run draft picks – but even that great depth is being tested to start the new season.
You could make an elite starting five from the OKC injury report, with Jalen Williams out, Alex Caruso in the concussion protocol, and both Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace listed as questionable.
Luckily, the visitors will still have their ace on the floor. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a career-high 55 points against the Indiana Pacers on Thursday.
While Ajay Mitchell and Aaron Wiggins are capable of relieving some of the burden, there will inevitably be stretches tonight where SGA is a one-man band.
He had 30+ points in both outings against the Atlanta Hawks last season, including a 34-point night in OKC, and it would be no surprise to see the reigning MVP and Finals MVP log a third straight game with 25+ shots.
In late-clock situations, the Thunder just don’t have many other options for creating a good look.
Though Dyson Daniels is an excellent on-ball defender, the visitors should be able to screen their way out of that matchup while hunting Trae Young.
Gilgeous-Alexander can hardly have expected to grind through 92 minutes across OKC’s first two games, but I’m counting on there being enough in the tank to nail this Over against a Hawks team that’s on the second night of a back-to-back set.
Thunder vs Hawks same-game parlay
I’m doubling down on Gilgeous-Alexander props. With SGA exerting so much energy offensively, the Thunder will surely look to dial back his defensive workload. As a helper off of the Hawks’ weaker shooters, he’ll be in the mix to clean the glass for OKC, and he grabbed eight boards on Thursday in Indiana.
This is a big total given the Thunder’s tenacious defense and some of the injury doubts hovering over the visitors. So I’ll take the Under, which is 6-4 in OKC’s past 10 outings and was a winning ticket in the Hawks’ 111-107 victory last night in Orlando, where Atlanta cleaned up some of the lapses that marred its season opener.
Thunder vs Hawks SGP
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 rebounds
- Under 238.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Shai Away!
There’s considerable hype around Jalen Johnson this year, with an All-Star push in play, and I see him being a force on the boards here, particularly if Atlanta goes small against guard-heavy OKC lineups.
Johnson averaged 10 RPG last season in 36 games, and his role will only increase if Kristaps Porzingis remains out with the illness that kept him sidelined last night.
Thunder vs Hawks SGP
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 rebounds
- Under 238.5
- Jalen Johnson Over 8.5 rebounds
Thunder vs Hawks odds
- Spread: Thunder -6.5 (-110) | Hawks +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -285 | Hawks +230
- Over/Under: Over 235.5 (-110) | Under 235.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Hawks betting trend to know
The Thunder were a stunning 64-38-4 ATS last season, including the playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Hawks.
How to watch Thunder vs Hawks
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Saturday, October 25, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | KWTV, FDSN SE-ATL |
Thunder vs Hawks latest injuries
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