Suns vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Phoenix Rises to Cover Modest Spread in Dallas

This has all the makings of a tightly-contested matchup with the Mavericks playing stingy defense on their home court. Still, despite a modest 3.5-point spread in favor of the home team, the Suns are strong and will challenge that number.

Dec 5, 2022 • 08:38 ET • 4 min read
Devin Burrow Phoenix Suns NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Tonight's NBA slate offers an exciting Western Conference matchup when the 16-7 Phoenix Suns meet the 11-11 Dallas Mavericks. Dallas will look to avenge an earlier 107-105 away loss to Phoenix in the second of their four-game season series.

Who will come out victorious? Find out in our free Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA picks and predictions for Monday, December 5.

Suns vs Mavericks best odds

Suns vs Mavericks picks and predictions

This rematch between Western Conference heavyweights should be a good one, and my best bet is for the Phoenix Suns to cover the +3.5-point spread.

Phoenix hasn’t missed a beat without Chris Paul in the lineup. Devin Booker leads Phoenix in scoring and assists, plus he scored 40 or more in three of the past five, along with 33 total assists. Deandre Ayton is averaging nearly a double-double, and Cameron Payne has given the Suns some much-needed scoring as Paul’s replacement.

The Suns average about two assists for every turnover and rank fifth in defensive efficiency. That's a deadly combination, and when you add in their decisive rebounding edge on both ends of the floor, it's going to be difficult for the Mavericks to win.

Dallas is 10th in the Western Conference, but it always has a chance with Luka Doncic on the floor. Doncic leads the league in scoring and is averaging nearly a triple-double. Christian Wood is questionable but is second on the team in rebounds and scoring, and the two make an incredible duo. Spencer Dinwiddie has been solid, and Tim Hardaway Jr. can still light it up from downtown (34%).

The Mavericks rank dead-last in rebounding and 18th in assist-to-turnover ratio. Dallas launches the third-most triples, but only ranks 17th in threes made and 29th from the charity stripe. 

Dallas may win this game — it is 9-3 at home — but a 3-8-1 against-the-spread home team won’t cover against the best team in the Western Conference. The Suns have won four of their last five and walloped the Spurs by 38 on Sunday afternoon in San Antonio. Phoenix rested its starters for most of the fourth quarter, and the back-to-back shouldn’t affect the Western Conference leaders.

Phoenix has a distinct edge on the glass and is a better passing team with the fifth-fewest turnovers. Phoenix may not have a winning road record, but it is 5-4 ATS this season and 1-1 ATS in back-to-back situations. Both sides are in the Top 5 in points allowed, and I’ll side with the better rebounding and free-throw shooting team in what should be a close game.

My best bet: Suns +3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Suns vs Mavericks spread analysis

Except for their last meeting, most of the matchups between these sides have been relatively lopsided. I don’t expect that to be the case Monday, but I am leaning toward Dallas winning this game.

Phoenix came back from a 15-point deficit to defeat the Mavericks in their last meeting. Dallas is 3-2 over their last five at American Airlines Center and coming off a solid away victory over New York. It hasn't won much on the road, and the solid away win may help the current 10-seed gain the confidence to rise in the standings.

The Mavericks live and die beyond the arc, and they face a Phoenix side allowing a 22nd-worst 36.6% but a fourth-best 32.5 points per game from downtown. Phoenix scores the eighth-most 3-pointers per game and is facing the fourth-best team at stopping the long ball.

Phoenix is 4-5 straight up as the away side, and Dallas is 9-3 at American Airlines Arena. Taking Dallas -160 on the ML might have some value and be a steal if anyone from Phoenix rests.

Suns vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis

The total is 221.5, and I’m leaning toward this being a low-scoring game and playing Under the oddsmakers' number.

Phoenix is 10th in defensive efficiency as the away team and allows the 7th fewest points per road game. Dallas is 7th in defensive efficiency at American Airlines this season, while the Mavs surrender the 2nd fewest points per game at home. 

Dallas ekes out wins at home by playing good defense, taking care of the ball, and knocking down the deep ball. Phoenix shot 50% from downtown Sunday against the Spurs, and we should expect some regression on their part in what should be an intense Dallas atmosphere.

The Over is 10-12 through the Suns' 22 games this season and 4-4-1 with them as the away side. This season, the Mavericks are 13-9 to the Over, and the Over is 7-5 at American Airlines Center. 

This is a game Dallas doesn’t want to lose. The Mavericks head to Denver immediately after this contest for a Tuesday night clash with the Nuggets. They'll clamp down on the defensive end and challenge everything Booker and Phoenix throw at them.

Both sides are in the Bottom 10 in pace and Dallas is 29th in the league so expect a slow-paced, physical game with plenty of free throws. Dallas is lousy at the charity stripe, the defenses are too good and the Under is where I’m headed.

Suns vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Suns are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Dallas. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Mavericks.

Suns vs Mavericks game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Monday, December 5, 2022
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET

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