If you want to go deep in the NBA Playoffs, you'd better bring some quality contributors off the pine.
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s championship blueprint contains plenty of points from the bench, and prediction markets like Kalshi are offering markets on whether OKC’s bench will outscore the San Antonio Spurs' reserves in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
Here are my best NBA picks and Spurs vs. Thunder predictions for this market on May 26.
Spurs vs. Thunder head-to-head bench points
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Pick: Thunder bench to outscore Spurs bench — Yes
San Antonio bench
Key Reserves
- Dylan Harper (13.3 ppg in postseason)
- Keldon Johnson (8.1)
- Luke Kornet (5.1)
The San Antonio Spurs are much more dependent on their starting lineup, especially so in the Western Conference Finals.
The Spurs bench was logging more than 17 minutes per game for an average of 35.1 points in the first three rounds, but that has tightened to 13.3 minutes/23.5 points in the past four games.
De’Aaron Fox’s absence in the first two games of the series had San Antonio leaning hard into the starting five, but blowouts the past two games have left head coach Mitch Johnson to give his reserves more run. Game 4 finished with 30 points from the bench — a team-high for the series.
Game script for tonight calls for a closer contest, which means San Antonio leans on its starters.
Guard Dylan Harper is the only reserve averaging more than 20 minutes per game in the postseason (25.7). He’s logged less floor time in the past two outings with Fox back while lumbering through an adductor injury.
The Spurs’ starters have outscored the Thunder’s starting five by almost 32 points over the first four games, and we do see a decrease in minutes and a near five-point dip from the reserves when the team hits the road in the tournament.
Oklahoma City bench
Key Reserves
- Alex Caruso (10.3 ppg in postseason)
- Jared McCain (8.8)
- Jaylin Williams (4.7)
The X-factor for this prediction market could be Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jalen Williams.
Should Williams sit out, an already thin bench for the Thunder gets thinner due to Ajay Mitchell’s absence (out with calf injury). Cason Wallace has moved into the starting lineup in place of Williams, leaving Alex Caruso, Jaylen Williams, and Jared McCain as the biggest contributors off the bench.
The support staff slumped last time out, shooting a collective 25.5% for a combined 34 points in Game 4. The bench took 27 of 47 shots from beyond the arc with OKC trailing big on Sunday, making only five of those long-range attempts.
However, Oklahoma City’s reserves have been awesome overall, and topped the postseason with 42.9 average points in 20.2 minutes per game off the pine before Game 4.
I expect them to tighten up with a return home, where the reserves connect at a 44.6% clip during the playoffs. Even with Williams likely out, which depletes the bench, OKC’s “other guys” will continue to contribute.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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