Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Zibanejad is Set for Statistical Correction

Prop bet #1: Pass me another Under, Mr. Jones

Finding ways to fade the Chicago Blackhawks has been on my agenda all season, and with just three goals during their active five-game losing streak, I’m looking to the Windy City again on Friday. After all, Chicago is 3-9 with a league-low 15 goals since leading-scorer Connor Bedard was sidelined with a jaw injury.

The offensive woes stretch throughout the lineup, and No. 1 defenseman Seth Jones has only marked the scoresheet in two of the noted 12 games. Additionally, he drops from 2.85 on-ice goals and 4.03 expected goals per 60 minutes across 294:52 of shared ice time with Bedard, to respective 1.84 and 2.49 marks when he isn’t.

I value love Jones' odds because this couldn’t be a better schedule spot for the visiting New York Rangers. The Blueshirts are rested following a tidy 3-1 win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday, and New York won't be playing again until Monday following tonight's contest.

Seth Jones prop: Under 0.5 points (-140 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Mika Magic blows into Windy City

Rangers center Mika Zibanejad is set for statistical correction this evening. He’s recorded just a single goal, 10 assists, and 1.98 points per 60 minutes across his past 16 games despite skating in a go-to offensive role, which includes a wall-side role on the No. 1 power-play unit. 

Zibanejad's 3.2 shooting percentage during the stretch is unsustainably low, and he recorded a high-end 3.29 points per 60 minutes through the first 34 games of the season, which was also right in line with last year’s 3.34 mark.

The Chicago Blackhawks have actually been rock-solid defensively through 12 games without Connor Bedard, but the Rangers still boast the better lineup top to bottom. Additionally, the Blackhawks are still allowing the third-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (13.17) and rank fifth-last in Corsi For percentage (45.0%) at five-on-five.

This is another case where betting a half unit each on Zibanejad to score (+175) and to record an assist (+110) pays more than a full unit on the -190 for him to go Over 0.5 points. If he capitalizes on the matchup and records a goal and an assist, it’s a huge payday, and you’re still winning more with the two half-unit wagers if the Rangers forward collects one point.

Mika Zibanejad prop: Anytime goalscorer (+175 at Bet99)
Mika Zibanejad prop: Over 0.5 assists (+110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Oilers a bad sign for Leo

The Anaheim Ducks and rookie center Leo Carlsson welcome the Edmonton Oilers to the Honda Center on Friday, and Carlsson projects to spend the bulk of the night lining up opposite superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers just had their 16-game losing streak snapped on Tuesday, and I’m expecting Edmonton to be too much to handle in Anaheim’s first game out of the All-Star break.

The Oilers have been a juggernaut since Kris Knoblauch took over as the head coach and rank fourth in Corsi For percentage (54.5%), second in goals for percentage (58.35), and first in expected goals for percentage (57.2%) at five-on-five. Edmonton also tops the league in penalty-kill percentage (89.5%) during the 33-game stretch.

Additionally, Carlsson is projected to center veterans Adam Henrique and Ryan Strome, and the trio have only spent 20:42 of 5-on-5 ice time together as a line. So, with this a nightmare matchup across the board for the Ducks, I’m seeing value in Carlsson's odds of missing the scoresheet Friday.

Leo Carlsson prop: Under 0.5 points (-140 at Bet99)